Points
80Points expected by the market
70.80Gap
+9.20Yield
+12.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.32 | −26.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 38 | +2.88 | −5.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 36 | +6.65 | +24.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.99 | +115.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.32 | −26.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 28 | +1.61 | −11.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 12 | +3.47 | +68.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 10 | +1.27 | +12.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 24 | +3.18 | +7.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.99 | +115.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Salford · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +1.63 |
| M2 | Tranmere · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.73 | +0.90 |
| M3 | Barrow · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.28 | −0.38 |
| M4 | Doncaster · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.48 | −1.86 |
| M5 | Newport County · Away7 Sep 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.43 | −0.44 |
| M6 | Chesterfield · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.62 | +1.19 |
| M7 | Accrington · Away21 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.53 |
| M8 | Swindon · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.31 | +1.84 |
| M9 | Colchester · Home1 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | +1.00 |
| M10 | Notts County · Away5 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +2.65 |
| M11 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away12 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.87 | +4.52 |
| M12 | Fleetwood Town · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.35 | +5.87 |
| M13 | Harrogate · Away22 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +6.96 |
| M14 | AFC Wimbledon · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.45 | +8.41 |
| M15 | Gillingham · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | +6.94 |
| M16 | Morecambe · Away16 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.14 | +8.07 |
| M17 | Crewe · Home25 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | +7.40 |
| M18 | Cheltenham · Away3 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | +6.85 |
| M19 | Walsall · Home7 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.39 | +5.46 |
| M20 | Bromley · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.34 | +5.12 |
| M21 | Carlisle · Home21 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.84 | +4.28 |
| M22 | Bradford · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.19 | +3.09 |
| M23 | Grimsby · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.28 | +1.81 |
| M24 | Cheltenham · Home1 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.70 | +1.11 |
| M25 | Doncaster · Away4 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.09 | +3.20 |
| M26 | Newport County · Home18 Jan 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.92 | +4.13 |
| M27 | Chesterfield · Away25 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.17 | +3.96 |
| M28 | Accrington · Home1 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.22 | +5.18 |
| M29 | Swindon · Away8 Feb 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.27 | +4.91 |
| M30 | Notts County · Home13 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.62 | +6.53 |
| M31 | Salford · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.39 | +7.93 |
| M32 | Tranmere · Away1 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.42 | +7.50 |
| M33 | Harrogate · Home4 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.83 | +6.68 |
| M34 | Fleetwood Town · Away8 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.15 | +6.53 |
| M35 | Colchester · Away11 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | +5.43 |
| M36 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home15 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +6.77 |
| M37 | Morecambe · Home22 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.87 | +7.64 |
| M38 | Barrow · Home25 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.75 | +5.90 |
| M39 | Crewe · Away29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | +7.49 |
| M40 | Bradford · Home1 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +9.14 |
| M41 | Walsall · Away5 Apr 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.81 | +10.96 |
| M42 | Bromley · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +12.05 |
| M43 | Carlisle · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.73 | +10.32 |
| M44 | Grimsby · Home21 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.67 | +9.65 |
| M45 | AFC Wimbledon · Away26 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.74 | +11.39 |
| M46 | Gillingham · Home3 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.19 | +9.20 |
| Total | 80 | +9.20 | |||