Points
76Points expected by the market
77.57Gap
−1.57Yield
−1.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 5 | −4.06 | −65.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 26 | 42 | −4.39 | −24.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 26 | +4.85 | +34.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.03 | +296.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 5 | −4.06 | −65.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 25 | −5.78 | −30.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 6 | +3.17 | +149.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 17 | +1.39 | −12.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 20 | +1.68 | +16.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.03 | +296.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fleetwood Town · Home2 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.65 | −1.65 |
| M2 | Bromley · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.49 | −3.14 |
| M3 | Walsall · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −4.75 |
| M4 | Swindon · Away19 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.70 | −3.05 |
| M5 | Cheltenham · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.19 | −1.86 |
| M6 | Colchester · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.74 | −2.59 |
| M7 | Shrewsbury · Home6 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.92 | −4.51 |
| M8 | Crewe · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.68 | −2.84 |
| M9 | Grimsby · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.46 | −1.37 |
| M10 | Oldham · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | −1.81 |
| M11 | Accrington · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.04 | −0.77 |
| M12 | Tranmere · Away11 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.37 | +0.60 |
| M13 | Notts County · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.66 | −1.06 |
| M14 | Barrow · Away25 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.71 | −1.77 |
| M15 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.61 | −2.38 |
| M16 | Cambridge · Away15 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.43 | −2.82 |
| M17 | Gillingham · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.65 | −3.47 |
| M18 | Harrogate · Home29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.36 | −4.83 |
| M19 | Bristol Rovers · Home9 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.04 | −3.79 |
| M20 | Chesterfield · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.54 | −5.33 |
| M21 | Salford · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.71 | −7.04 |
| M22 | Newport County · Away26 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.03 | −8.07 |
| M23 | Bristol Rovers · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | −6.65 |
| M24 | Crawley Town · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.03 | −5.63 |
| M25 | Grimsby · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.36 | −6.98 |
| M26 | Oldham · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.26 | −5.72 |
| M27 | Tranmere · Home27 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.97 | −4.76 |
| M28 | Shrewsbury · Away31 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.78 | −5.53 |
| M29 | Crewe · Home3 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.97 | −6.51 |
| M30 | Walsall · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.54 | −4.97 |
| M31 | Cheltenham · Home14 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.22 | −6.19 |
| M32 | Swindon · Home17 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.85 | −8.04 |
| M33 | Colchester · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.39 | −9.43 |
| M34 | Accrington · Away24 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.26 | −8.17 |
| M35 | Chesterfield · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.36 | −6.82 |
| M36 | Salford · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −8.18 |
| M37 | Newport County · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.26 | −10.45 |
| M38 | Crawley Town · Away17 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | −11.12 |
| M39 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away21 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.03 | −9.09 |
| M40 | Cambridge · Home28 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.70 | −7.39 |
| M41 | Bromley · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.69 | −8.07 |
| M42 | Fleetwood Town · Away6 Apr 2026 | W 5-2 | 3 | +1.57 | −6.50 |
| M43 | Barrow · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.94 | −5.56 |
| M44 | Notts County · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.63 | −3.94 |
| M45 | Gillingham · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 6-2 | 3 | +0.79 | −3.15 |
| M46 | Harrogate · Away2 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.58 | −1.57 |
| Total | 76 | −1.57 | |||