Points
36Points expected by the market
52.45Gap
−16.45Yield
−34.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 1 | −4.19 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 26 | 25 | −7.75 | −15.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 10 | −4.51 | −52.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 1 | −4.19 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 17 | −6.14 | −13.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.08 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 8 | −1.61 | −19.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 9 | −3.43 | −45.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Chesterfield · Away2 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| M2 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −2.24 |
| M3 | Notts County · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.68 | −0.56 |
| M4 | Harrogate · Away19 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.46 | −2.03 |
| M5 | Colchester · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.87 | −0.16 |
| M6 | Fleetwood Town · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.52 | −1.68 |
| M7 | Swindon · Home6 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.20 | −2.87 |
| M8 | Bristol Rovers · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.93 | −3.80 |
| M9 | Crewe · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.79 | −2.01 |
| M10 | Crawley Town · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.82 | −0.19 |
| M11 | Shrewsbury · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.73 |
| M12 | Oldham · Away11 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.72 |
| M13 | Walsall · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.11 | +1.39 |
| M14 | Barnet · Home25 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.02 | +1.37 |
| M15 | Grimsby · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | +1.19 |
| M16 | Bromley · Away15 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.88 | +0.31 |
| M17 | Cambridge · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −0.88 |
| M18 | Newport County · Away29 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.30 | −1.18 |
| M19 | Tranmere · Home9 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.38 | −2.56 |
| M20 | Gillingham · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.04 | −2.52 |
| M21 | Cheltenham · Home19 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.68 | −4.20 |
| M22 | Accrington · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.11 | −5.32 |
| M23 | Tranmere · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.95 | −3.36 |
| M24 | Salford · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −4.42 |
| M25 | Crewe · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −5.38 |
| M26 | Crawley Town · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.49 | −6.87 |
| M27 | Swindon · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.88 | −7.76 |
| M28 | Notts County · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.76 | −8.51 |
| M29 | Shrewsbury · Away10 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −9.70 |
| M30 | Colchester · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | −7.85 |
| M31 | Harrogate · Home17 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.85 | −9.70 |
| M32 | Fleetwood Town · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.07 | −10.77 |
| M33 | Gillingham · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −12.07 |
| M34 | Cheltenham · Away6 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.17 | −12.24 |
| M35 | Bristol Rovers · Home10 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −13.56 |
| M36 | Accrington · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | −14.22 |
| M37 | Salford · Away17 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.70 | −14.92 |
| M38 | Grimsby · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.75 | −15.67 |
| M39 | Bromley · Home28 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.86 | −13.81 |
| M40 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.42 | −13.39 |
| M41 | Chesterfield · Home6 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | −14.50 |
| M42 | Barnet · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.71 | −15.21 |
| M43 | Oldham · Home14 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.89 | −13.31 |
| M44 | Walsall · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −14.71 |
| M45 | Cambridge · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.50 | −15.21 |
| M46 | Newport County · Home2 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −16.45 |
| Total | 36 | −16.45 | |||