Points
87Points expected by the market
68.73Gap
+18.27Yield
+14.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | +37.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 35 | +6.20 | +13.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 25 | 47 | +13.21 | +32.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 2 | −1.90 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | +37.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 28 | +5.97 | +17.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 20 | +5.81 | +23.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | +0.23 | +2.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 27 | +7.40 | +38.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 2 | −1.90 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Shrewsbury · Away2 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| M2 | Barnet · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.76 | +1.50 |
| M3 | Fleetwood Town · Home16 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.96 |
| M4 | Cheltenham · Away19 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.48 | +2.44 |
| M5 | Notts County · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | +2.26 |
| M6 | Harrogate · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +3.37 |
| M7 | Gillingham · Home6 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | +2.81 |
| M8 | Oldham · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | +1.49 |
| M9 | Chesterfield · Home20 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.31 | +1.18 |
| M10 | Swindon · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.13 | +0.05 |
| M11 | Tranmere · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.71 |
| M12 | Crewe · Away11 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +1.09 |
| M13 | Cambridge · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −0.05 |
| M14 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +1.62 |
| M15 | Colchester · Away8 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +3.48 |
| M16 | Barrow · Home15 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.14 | +4.62 |
| M17 | Salford · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.48 | +6.10 |
| M18 | Walsall · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.18 | +4.92 |
| M19 | Crawley Town · Home9 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.25 | +6.16 |
| M20 | Accrington · Away13 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.58 | +7.75 |
| M21 | Grimsby · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.48 | +9.23 |
| M22 | Bristol Rovers · Away26 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.57 | +10.80 |
| M23 | Crawley Town · Away29 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.51 | +12.31 |
| M24 | Newport County · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.76 | +13.07 |
| M25 | Tranmere · Away10 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.40 | +14.47 |
| M26 | Chesterfield · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.38 | +14.09 |
| M27 | Swindon · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.35 | +15.44 |
| M28 | Crewe · Home27 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.87 | +14.58 |
| M29 | Gillingham · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.72 | +16.29 |
| M30 | Fleetwood Town · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.45 | +17.75 |
| M31 | Notts County · Home14 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.50 | +17.24 |
| M32 | Cheltenham · Home17 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.04 | +16.21 |
| M33 | Harrogate · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.91 | +15.30 |
| M34 | Accrington · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.14 | +16.43 |
| M35 | Oldham · Home3 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.57 | +15.86 |
| M36 | Grimsby · Away7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | +15.83 |
| M37 | Bristol Rovers · Home14 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +17.12 |
| M38 | Newport County · Away17 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | +18.44 |
| M39 | Colchester · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | +19.94 |
| M40 | Barrow · Away28 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.58 | +18.35 |
| M41 | Barnet · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.04 | +18.32 |
| M42 | Shrewsbury · Home7 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.91 | +19.23 |
| M43 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.86 | +18.37 |
| M44 | Cambridge · Home16 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.15 | +18.22 |
| M45 | Salford · Away23 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.98 | +17.25 |
| M46 | Walsall · Home2 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.02 | +18.27 |
| Total | 87 | +18.27 | |||