Points
66Points expected by the market
66.63Gap
−0.63Yield
−9.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.85 | +44.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 26 | −0.25 | −3.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 26 | 32 | −2.52 | −15.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 5 | +1.29 | −0.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.85 | +44.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 17 | −1.25 | −17.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 16 | −0.56 | −13.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 9 | +1.00 | +24.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 16 | −1.96 | −17.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 5 | +1.29 | −0.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Tranmere · Home2 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| M2 | Oldham · Away9 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.65 |
| M3 | Shrewsbury · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +1.07 |
| M4 | Cambridge · Home19 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −0.33 |
| M5 | Barrow · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.58 | −1.91 |
| M6 | Barnet · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.01 | −1.90 |
| M7 | Crewe · Home6 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.37 | −2.27 |
| M8 | Accrington · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.44 | −3.70 |
| M9 | Bristol Rovers · Home20 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −3.94 |
| M10 | Fleetwood Town · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.20 | −5.14 |
| M11 | Chesterfield · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 6-2 | 3 | +1.74 | −3.40 |
| M12 | Grimsby · Away11 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.04 | −1.36 |
| M13 | Harrogate · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.06 | −0.29 |
| M14 | Swindon · Away25 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.50 |
| M15 | Bromley · Home8 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.58 | −2.08 |
| M16 | Walsall · Away15 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.82 | −0.26 |
| M17 | Notts County · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.79 | +1.53 |
| M18 | Cheltenham · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +2.43 |
| M19 | Gillingham · Home6 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.84 | +1.59 |
| M20 | Salford · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.18 | +0.42 |
| M21 | Newport County · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.85 | +1.27 |
| M22 | Crawley Town · Away26 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.77 |
| M23 | Gillingham · Away29 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.40 |
| M24 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +2.04 |
| M25 | Bristol Rovers · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | +3.65 |
| M26 | Fleetwood Town · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.14 | +4.79 |
| M27 | Grimsby · Home27 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | +3.32 |
| M28 | Crewe · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | +1.96 |
| M29 | Shrewsbury · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +3.06 |
| M30 | Barrow · Away14 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.57 | +1.49 |
| M31 | Cambridge · Away17 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.05 | +1.54 |
| M32 | Barnet · Home21 Feb 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.68 | +3.22 |
| M33 | Salford · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.55 | +1.67 |
| M34 | Chesterfield · Away3 Mar 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.21 | +0.46 |
| M35 | Newport County · Away7 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.25 | +1.71 |
| M36 | Crawley Town · Home13 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.92 | +0.79 |
| M37 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away18 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −0.02 |
| M38 | Bromley · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.20 | −1.23 |
| M39 | Walsall · Home28 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −1.78 |
| M40 | Oldham · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.45 | −3.24 |
| M41 | Tranmere · Away6 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.44 | −1.80 |
| M42 | Swindon · Home10 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.50 | −0.30 |
| M43 | Accrington · Home14 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.02 | +0.72 |
| M44 | Harrogate · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.55 | −0.83 |
| M45 | Notts County · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.23 | −2.06 |
| M46 | Cheltenham · Away2 May 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.43 | −0.63 |
| Total | 66 | −0.63 | |||