Points
53Points expected by the market
61.29Gap
−8.29Yield
−35.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 22 | +0.69 | −8.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 26 | −3.94 | −19.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 5 | −5.04 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 16 | −1.74 | −26.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 14 | +0.20 | +3.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −2.16 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 6 | +2.43 | +84.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 12 | −4.14 | −37.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 4 | −2.87 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Accrington · Away2 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| M2 | Walsall · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +1.11 |
| M3 | Tranmere · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | +1.03 |
| M4 | Chesterfield · Home19 Aug 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.84 | +2.87 |
| M5 | Crewe · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | +4.48 |
| M6 | Oldham · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.77 | +6.25 |
| M7 | Bromley · Away6 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.13 | +6.11 |
| M8 | Notts County · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.50 | +7.61 |
| M9 | Newport County · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.27 | +8.88 |
| M10 | Harrogate · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.92 | +6.96 |
| M11 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.07 | +5.89 |
| M12 | Cheltenham · Home11 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.01 | +4.89 |
| M13 | Grimsby · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.12 | +3.76 |
| M14 | Salford · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.39 | +2.38 |
| M15 | Bristol Rovers · Away8 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +4.03 |
| M16 | Crawley Town · Home15 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.69 | +3.34 |
| M17 | Barnet · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | +3.27 |
| M18 | Shrewsbury · Away29 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.25 | +3.01 |
| M19 | Colchester · Away6 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.10 | +3.11 |
| M20 | Barrow · Home13 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.76 | +2.35 |
| M21 | Fleetwood Town · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.25 | +1.10 |
| M22 | Cambridge · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.80 |
| M23 | Colchester · Home29 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.46 |
| M24 | Swindon · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.10 | −0.64 |
| M25 | Newport County · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.00 | +0.36 |
| M26 | Harrogate · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.16 | +1.52 |
| M27 | Bromley · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.43 | +0.09 |
| M28 | Notts County · Away3 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −0.95 |
| M29 | Tranmere · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.21 | +0.25 |
| M30 | Crewe · Away14 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | −1.03 |
| M31 | Chesterfield · Away17 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −2.16 |
| M32 | Oldham · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.59 | −3.75 |
| M33 | Barrow · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | −2.16 |
| M34 | Fleetwood Town · Home7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | −2.73 |
| M35 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home10 Mar 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.07 | −3.80 |
| M36 | Cambridge · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.62 | −4.42 |
| M37 | Swindon · Home17 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.29 | −5.71 |
| M38 | Bristol Rovers · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.46 | −7.17 |
| M39 | Crawley Town · Away28 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −8.34 |
| M40 | Walsall · Away3 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.16 | −8.18 |
| M41 | Accrington · Home6 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.36 | −6.82 |
| M42 | Salford · Away11 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.28 | −6.54 |
| M43 | Cheltenham · Away14 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −7.91 |
| M44 | Grimsby · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.02 | −8.93 |
| M45 | Barnet · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 2-6 | 0 | −0.59 | −9.52 |
| M46 | Shrewsbury · Home2 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −8.29 |
| Total | 53 | −8.29 | |||