Points
78Points expected by the market
72.01Gap
+5.99Yield
+9.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 6 | −0.34 | −2.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 25 | 42 | −0.39 | −16.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 27 | +4.68 | +33.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.05 | +308.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 6 | −0.34 | −2.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 28 | −1.25 | −12.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 7 | +2.80 | +62.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 14 | +0.86 | −25.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 20 | +1.87 | +27.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.05 | +308.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Crawley Town · Home2 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.38 | +1.38 |
| M2 | Harrogate · Away9 Aug 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.78 |
| M3 | Newport County · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.84 | +1.62 |
| M4 | Walsall · Away19 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.70 | +3.32 |
| M5 | Accrington · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | +2.76 |
| M6 | Bristol Rovers · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.64 | +1.12 |
| M7 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away6 Sep 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.90 | +3.02 |
| M8 | Cambridge · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | +2.43 |
| M9 | Barnet · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.20 | +1.23 |
| M10 | Cheltenham · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 7-1 | 3 | +0.90 | +2.14 |
| M11 | Salford · Away4 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.76 | +3.89 |
| M12 | Colchester · Home11 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.78 | +2.11 |
| M13 | Gillingham · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.40 | +3.51 |
| M14 | Crewe · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.39 | +2.13 |
| M15 | Barrow · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.54 | +1.59 |
| M16 | Chesterfield · Home15 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.61 | −0.02 |
| M17 | Swindon · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.29 |
| M18 | Tranmere · Home27 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.67 | −1.96 |
| M19 | Shrewsbury · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −2.52 |
| M20 | Notts County · Home13 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.63 | −4.15 |
| M21 | Bromley · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −5.36 |
| M22 | Oldham · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.64 | −6.00 |
| M23 | Shrewsbury · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.16 | −4.84 |
| M24 | Fleetwood Town · Away1 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | −3.24 |
| M25 | Barnet · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | −1.60 |
| M26 | Cheltenham · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.31 | −0.29 |
| M27 | Colchester · Away27 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | +1.47 |
| M28 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home31 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.33 | +1.14 |
| M29 | Newport County · Away7 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.82 | +0.32 |
| M30 | Accrington · Home11 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.22 | +1.54 |
| M31 | Walsall · Home18 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.82 | +0.72 |
| M32 | Bristol Rovers · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.52 | −0.80 |
| M33 | Notts County · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.91 | +1.11 |
| M34 | Salford · Home3 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.50 | +2.61 |
| M35 | Bromley · Home7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.70 | +1.91 |
| M36 | Oldham · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | +0.59 |
| M37 | Fleetwood Town · Home17 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | +1.91 |
| M38 | Barrow · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.99 | +2.90 |
| M39 | Harrogate · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −2.09 | +0.81 |
| M40 | Crawley Town · Away6 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +2.20 |
| M41 | Crewe · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.22 | +3.41 |
| M42 | Chesterfield · Away14 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | +2.10 |
| M43 | Gillingham · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.29 | +3.39 |
| M44 | Cambridge · Away21 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.05 | +5.44 |
| M45 | Swindon · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.14 | +6.57 |
| M46 | Tranmere · Away2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.58 | +5.99 |
| Total | 78 | +5.99 | |||