Points
39Points expected by the market
44.07Gap
−5.07Yield
−10.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.67 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 17 | −1.23 | +3.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 30 | 22 | −2.17 | −13.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.67 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 11 | −3.79 | −25.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 4 | −4.77 | −36.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 6 | +2.57 | +119.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 18 | +2.59 | −2.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bristol Rovers · Away2 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.08 | +2.08 |
| M2 | Grimsby · Home9 Aug 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.13 | +1.95 |
| M3 | Cambridge · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.18 | +2.13 |
| M4 | Barrow · Home19 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.77 | +3.90 |
| M5 | Chesterfield · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.83 | +3.07 |
| M6 | Bromley · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.85 | +2.22 |
| M7 | Crawley Town · Home6 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.34 | +0.88 |
| M8 | Swindon · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.75 | +0.12 |
| M9 | Shrewsbury · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +1.85 |
| M10 | Gillingham · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.18 | +4.02 |
| M11 | Crewe · Home6 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | +2.87 |
| M12 | Fleetwood Town · Away11 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.98 | +1.89 |
| M13 | Colchester · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.82 | +1.07 |
| M14 | Newport County · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.67 | −0.60 |
| M15 | Oldham · Home8 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.07 | −1.67 |
| M16 | Notts County · Away15 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.40 | −1.27 |
| M17 | Walsall · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −2.14 |
| M18 | Barnet · Away29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.54 | −1.60 |
| M19 | Accrington · Home9 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −2.73 |
| M20 | Cheltenham · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.04 | −2.77 |
| M21 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.77 | −3.54 |
| M22 | Salford · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.50 | −4.04 |
| M23 | Accrington · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.85 | −4.88 |
| M24 | Tranmere · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −5.97 |
| M25 | Crewe · Away10 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.32 | −5.65 |
| M26 | Shrewsbury · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | −6.59 |
| M27 | Gillingham · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −7.49 |
| M28 | Fleetwood Town · Home27 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −8.63 |
| M29 | Crawley Town · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −9.38 |
| M30 | Swindon · Home3 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.85 | −10.23 |
| M31 | Cambridge · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.33 | −7.90 |
| M32 | Chesterfield · Away14 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.35 | −7.56 |
| M33 | Barrow · Away17 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.11 | −5.44 |
| M34 | Bromley · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.17 | −5.28 |
| M35 | Cheltenham · Home27 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | −5.71 |
| M36 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.57 | −6.28 |
| M37 | Salford · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −7.27 |
| M38 | Tranmere · Away17 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.85 | −5.41 |
| M39 | Oldham · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −6.23 |
| M40 | Notts County · Home28 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.98 | −7.21 |
| M41 | Grimsby · Away3 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.31 | −4.90 |
| M42 | Bristol Rovers · Home6 Apr 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.39 | −6.30 |
| M43 | Newport County · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −7.49 |
| M44 | Colchester · Home18 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | −5.66 |
| M45 | Walsall · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.90 | −3.75 |
| M46 | Barnet · Home2 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | −5.07 |
| Total | 39 | −5.07 | |||