Points
86Points expected by the market
79.29Gap
+6.71Yield
−2.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 13 | −0.25 | −7.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 25 | 52 | +6.72 | +8.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 21 | +0.23 | −19.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 13 | −0.25 | −7.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 32 | +1.23 | −4.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 20 | +5.49 | +37.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 21 | +0.23 | −19.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Oldham · Home2 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| M2 | Barrow · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +0.67 |
| M3 | Cheltenham · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +1.64 |
| M4 | Crawley Town · Away19 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.85 | +0.79 |
| M5 | Newport County · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.91 | +1.71 |
| M6 | Walsall · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.75 | −0.04 |
| M7 | Grimsby · Home6 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.64 | −1.68 |
| M8 | Chesterfield · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −1.88 |
| M9 | Accrington · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.14 | −4.02 |
| M10 | Shrewsbury · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −2.50 |
| M11 | Gillingham · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.36 | −1.14 |
| M12 | Bristol Rovers · Away11 Oct 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.66 | +0.52 |
| M13 | Crewe · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.26 | +1.78 |
| M14 | Bromley · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | +0.40 |
| M15 | Barnet · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.28 |
| M16 | Salford · Home15 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +1.71 |
| M17 | Tranmere · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.53 | +1.17 |
| M18 | Fleetwood Town · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.10 | +2.27 |
| M19 | Notts County · Away9 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.43 | +0.84 |
| M20 | Cambridge · Home13 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.25 |
| M21 | Harrogate · Away20 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.01 | +1.26 |
| M22 | Swindon · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.26 | +2.52 |
| M23 | Notts County · Home29 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.77 | +1.74 |
| M24 | Colchester · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | +0.40 |
| M25 | Chesterfield · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.41 |
| M26 | Accrington · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +1.04 |
| M27 | Shrewsbury · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.84 | +1.88 |
| M28 | Bristol Rovers · Home27 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.98 | +2.85 |
| M29 | Grimsby · Away31 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.38 | +2.47 |
| M30 | Cheltenham · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.12 | +3.59 |
| M31 | Newport County · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.70 | +4.30 |
| M32 | Crawley Town · Home17 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.02 | +3.28 |
| M33 | Walsall · Away23 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +4.69 |
| M34 | Cambridge · Away28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.21 | +4.47 |
| M35 | Harrogate · Home7 Mar 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.77 | +5.25 |
| M36 | Gillingham · Away10 Mar 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.35 | +6.60 |
| M37 | Swindon · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.49 | +8.09 |
| M38 | Colchester · Home18 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | +9.16 |
| M39 | Barnet · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.77 | +7.39 |
| M40 | Salford · Away28 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | +5.92 |
| M41 | Barrow · Home3 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.21 | +4.71 |
| M42 | Oldham · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.46 | +4.25 |
| M43 | Bromley · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.12 | +5.37 |
| M44 | Crewe · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.34 | +6.71 |
| M45 | Tranmere · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.79 | +7.50 |
| M46 | Fleetwood Town · Away2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.79 | +6.71 |
| Total | 86 | +6.71 | |||