Points
43Points expected by the market
43.91Gap
−0.91Yield
+4.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.59 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 19 | +5.30 | +52.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 35 | 24 | −4.61 | −6.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.59 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 16 | +5.02 | +61.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 6 | −7.05 | −72.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.28 | +16.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 21 | 18 | +2.44 | +37.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Notts County · Home2 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 |
| M2 | Crawley Town · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.19 | +2.28 |
| M3 | Grimsby · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.63 | +1.65 |
| M4 | Salford · Home19 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.06 | +0.60 |
| M5 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.69 | −0.09 |
| M6 | Cambridge · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.63 | −0.72 |
| M7 | Bristol Rovers · Home6 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.03 | −1.75 |
| M8 | Tranmere · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | −1.56 |
| M9 | Gillingham · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.00 | −2.55 |
| M10 | Chesterfield · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.60 | −3.16 |
| M11 | Swindon · Home4 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.84 | −4.00 |
| M12 | Accrington · Away11 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.06 | −1.94 |
| M13 | Cheltenham · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −3.53 |
| M14 | Harrogate · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.94 | −1.59 |
| M15 | Walsall · Home8 Nov 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.97 | −2.56 |
| M16 | Shrewsbury · Away15 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −3.51 |
| M17 | Oldham · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.88 | −4.39 |
| M18 | Barrow · Home29 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.42 | −4.81 |
| M19 | Crewe · Away10 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.24 | −4.57 |
| M20 | Fleetwood Town · Home13 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.23 | −5.80 |
| M21 | Colchester · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.65 | −6.44 |
| M22 | Barnet · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.26 | −6.18 |
| M23 | Crewe · Home29 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.88 | −4.30 |
| M24 | Bromley · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.56 | −4.86 |
| M25 | Gillingham · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −5.61 |
| M26 | Chesterfield · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.01 | −3.60 |
| M27 | Accrington · Home27 Jan 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.13 | −4.73 |
| M28 | Bristol Rovers · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.89 | −5.62 |
| M29 | Grimsby · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.07 | −5.54 |
| M30 | Swindon · Away11 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.66 | −6.21 |
| M31 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away14 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.52 | −6.72 |
| M32 | Salford · Away17 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.48 | −4.24 |
| M33 | Cambridge · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −5.00 |
| M34 | Fleetwood Town · Away28 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.17 | −4.83 |
| M35 | Tranmere · Home3 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.64 | −3.19 |
| M36 | Colchester · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.98 | −4.16 |
| M37 | Barnet · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.45 | −1.71 |
| M38 | Bromley · Home17 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −2.76 |
| M39 | Walsall · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.86 | −3.62 |
| M40 | Shrewsbury · Home28 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −2.09 |
| M41 | Crawley Town · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.42 | −3.51 |
| M42 | Notts County · Away6 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.71 | −4.22 |
| M43 | Harrogate · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | −2.74 |
| M44 | Cheltenham · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | −3.99 |
| M45 | Oldham · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.56 | −2.42 |
| M46 | Barrow · Away2 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −0.91 |
| Total | 43 | −0.91 | |||