Points
81Points expected by the market
72.85Gap
+8.15Yield
+20.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.61 | −34.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 25 | 45 | +1.09 | −2.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 30 | +7.66 | +54.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.00 | +80.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.61 | −34.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 31 | +2.28 | +4.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 12 | +4.85 | +98.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 14 | −1.18 | −14.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 18 | +2.80 | +36.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.00 | +80.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Crewe · Home2 Aug 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.76 | −1.76 |
| M2 | Notts County · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.88 | +0.13 |
| M3 | Accrington · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.24 | +1.37 |
| M4 | Newport County · Away19 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | +2.68 |
| M5 | Walsall · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | +1.51 |
| M6 | Cheltenham · Home29 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.94 | +0.57 |
| M7 | Tranmere · Home6 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.26 | +1.83 |
| M8 | Shrewsbury · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.56 | +3.39 |
| M9 | Swindon · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.48 | +4.88 |
| M10 | Bristol Rovers · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.30 | +3.57 |
| M11 | Grimsby · Home4 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.50 | +2.08 |
| M12 | Chesterfield · Away11 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.22 | +0.86 |
| M13 | Oldham · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +2.21 |
| M14 | Gillingham · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.66 | +3.87 |
| M15 | Cambridge · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | +3.25 |
| M16 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away15 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.17 | +2.08 |
| M17 | Bromley · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.20 | +0.88 |
| M18 | Crawley Town · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.19 | +2.07 |
| M19 | Fleetwood Town · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | +1.49 |
| M20 | Colchester · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.45 | +2.94 |
| M21 | Barnet · Away20 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +4.91 |
| M22 | Harrogate · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.68 | +5.59 |
| M23 | Fleetwood Town · Home29 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.84 | +4.76 |
| M24 | Barrow · Away1 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.33 | +6.09 |
| M25 | Swindon · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.68 | +7.77 |
| M26 | Bristol Rovers · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | +8.83 |
| M27 | Chesterfield · Home27 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.76 | +7.07 |
| M28 | Tranmere · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.23 | +8.30 |
| M29 | Accrington · Away5 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.60 | +6.70 |
| M30 | Newport County · Home17 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −2.29 | +4.41 |
| M31 | Cheltenham · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.81 | +2.60 |
| M32 | Shrewsbury · Home24 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.80 | +0.80 |
| M33 | Colchester · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +2.63 |
| M34 | Grimsby · Away3 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.22 | +1.40 |
| M35 | Barnet · Home7 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +3.05 |
| M36 | Walsall · Home10 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | +4.36 |
| M37 | Harrogate · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.25 | +5.61 |
| M38 | Barrow · Home17 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.94 | +6.55 |
| M39 | Cambridge · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.96 | +5.59 |
| M40 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home28 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.75 | +7.33 |
| M41 | Notts County · Home3 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | +8.81 |
| M42 | Crewe · Away6 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.55 | +7.26 |
| M43 | Gillingham · Home11 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.05 | +6.21 |
| M44 | Oldham · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | +7.68 |
| M45 | Bromley · Home23 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +8.92 |
| M46 | Crawley Town · Away2 May 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.77 | +8.15 |
| Total | 81 | +8.15 | |||