Points
49Points expected by the market
54.80Gap
−5.80Yield
−13.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.76 | +23.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 25 | 28 | −5.21 | −24.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 15 | −1.35 | −4.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.76 | +23.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 23 | −1.39 | −11.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 4 | +2.04 | +92.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 5 | −3.83 | −57.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 11 | −3.38 | −16.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bromley · Home2 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.46 |
| M2 | Tranmere · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.04 | −1.50 |
| M3 | Colchester · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.41 | −2.91 |
| M4 | Notts County · Away20 Aug 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.06 | −3.97 |
| M5 | Swindon · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −4.90 |
| M6 | Accrington · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.56 | −5.45 |
| M7 | Barnet · Away6 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.17 | −3.28 |
| M8 | Salford · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.29 | −4.57 |
| M9 | Harrogate · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.45 | −6.02 |
| M10 | Milton Keynes Dons · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −7.26 |
| M11 | Barrow · Away4 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | −7.43 |
| M12 | Cambridge · Home11 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.82 | −5.61 |
| M13 | Crawley Town · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.48 | −4.13 |
| M14 | Oldham · Away25 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.10 | −4.23 |
| M15 | Crewe · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.07 | −5.30 |
| M16 | Newport County · Home15 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −4.07 |
| M17 | Fleetwood Town · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.23 | −5.31 |
| M18 | Gillingham · Home29 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.46 | −5.76 |
| M19 | Grimsby · Home9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −5.93 |
| M20 | Walsall · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | −5.82 |
| M21 | Chesterfield · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | −7.10 |
| M22 | Cheltenham · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.41 | −8.51 |
| M23 | Grimsby · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.91 | −9.42 |
| M24 | Bristol Rovers · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.38 | −10.80 |
| M25 | Harrogate · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.21 | −9.59 |
| M26 | Milton Keynes Dons · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.62 | −10.21 |
| M27 | Cambridge · Away27 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.69 | −10.89 |
| M28 | Barnet · Home31 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.04 | −10.85 |
| M29 | Colchester · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.83 | −11.68 |
| M30 | Barrow · Home10 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.48 | −10.21 |
| M31 | Swindon · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.76 | −8.44 |
| M32 | Notts County · Home17 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.81 | −6.63 |
| M33 | Accrington · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −4.87 |
| M34 | Salford · Away24 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.07 | −2.80 |
| M35 | Walsall · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.54 | −4.33 |
| M36 | Chesterfield · Away7 Mar 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.08 | −2.26 |
| M37 | Cheltenham · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.67 | −3.93 |
| M38 | Bristol Rovers · Away17 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −4.97 |
| M39 | Crewe · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.25 | −6.22 |
| M40 | Newport County · Away28 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.23 | −7.45 |
| M41 | Tranmere · Home3 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | −5.99 |
| M42 | Bromley · Away7 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −6.66 |
| M43 | Oldham · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.00 | −4.67 |
| M44 | Crawley Town · Away18 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.01 | −4.66 |
| M45 | Fleetwood Town · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | −4.83 |
| M46 | Gillingham · Away2 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.96 | −5.80 |
| Total | 49 | −5.80 | |||