Points
17Points expected by the market
22.22Gap
−5.22Yield
−42.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.79 | +39.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 10 | −5.59 | −57.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.42 | −24.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.79 | +39.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 4 | −3.40 | −57.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.50 | +126.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 6 | −2.19 | −57.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.93 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Exeter · Home15 Aug 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +1.12 |
| M2 | Walsall · Away22 Aug 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.62 |
| M3 | Fleetwood Town · Home29 Aug 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.13 |
| M4 | Accrington · Away1 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.80 |
| M5 | Cheltenham · Away5 Sep 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | −1.36 |
| M6 | Bristol Rovers · Home12 Sep 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.50 | +0.14 |
| M7 | Crawley Town · Home19 Sep 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.79 | +0.94 |
| M8 | Newport County · Away26 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.73 | −0.80 |
| M9 | Shrewsbury · Home3 Oct 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.95 | −2.75 |
| M10 | Port Vale · Away10 Oct 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.42 | −4.18 |
| M11 | Northampton · Home17 Oct 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.82 | −5.99 |
| M12 | Rochdale · Away20 Oct 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.63 | −6.62 |
| M13 | Gillingham · Away24 Oct 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.41 | −5.22 |
| Total | 17 | −5.22 | |||