Points
44Points expected by the market
63.96Gap
−19.96Yield
−50.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 7 | −1.95 | −31.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 22 | 34 | −7.47 | −27.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 2 | −6.40 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 1 | −4.14 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 7 | −1.95 | −31.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 17 | −3.85 | −39.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 1 | −2.89 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.79 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 17 | −3.62 | −15.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 1 | −3.51 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 1 | −3.35 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Everton · Away6 Aug 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.92 | +0.92 |
| M2 | Tottenham · Home14 Aug 2022 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.31 |
| M3 | Leeds · Away21 Aug 2022 | L 0-3 | 0 | −2.10 | −1.79 |
| M4 | Leicester · Home27 Aug 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.76 | −1.03 |
| M5 | Southampton · Away30 Aug 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.97 | −3.00 |
| M6 | West Ham · Home3 Sep 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.02 | −1.98 |
| M7 | Crystal Palace · Away1 Oct 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.11 | −0.87 |
| M8 | Wolverhampton · Home8 Oct 2022 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.87 | 0.00 |
| M9 | Aston Villa · Away16 Oct 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +1.28 |
| M10 | Brentford · Away19 Oct 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.83 | +0.45 |
| M11 | Manchester United · Home22 Oct 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.17 |
| M12 | Brighton · Away29 Oct 2022 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.49 | −1.66 |
| M13 | Arsenal · Home6 Nov 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.34 | −3.00 |
| M14 | Newcastle · Away12 Nov 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | −4.11 |
| M15 | Bournemouth · Home27 Dec 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.68 | −3.42 |
| M16 | Nottingham Forest · Away1 Jan 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.03 | −4.45 |
| M17 | Manchester City · Home5 Jan 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.79 | −5.24 |
| M18 | Fulham · Away12 Jan 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −6.95 |
| M19 | Crystal Palace · Home15 Jan 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.18 | −5.77 |
| M20 | Liverpool · Away21 Jan 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.05 | −5.82 |
| M21 | Fulham · Home3 Feb 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.04 | −6.86 |
| M22 | West Ham · Away11 Feb 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | −7.44 |
| M23 | Southampton · Home18 Feb 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.22 | −9.67 |
| M24 | Tottenham · Away26 Feb 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −11.10 |
| M25 | Leeds · Home4 Mar 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.94 | −10.16 |
| M26 | Leicester · Away11 Mar 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.24 | −8.91 |
| M27 | Everton · Home18 Mar 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.17 | −10.08 |
| M28 | Aston Villa · Home1 Apr 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −2.03 | −12.11 |
| M29 | Liverpool · Home4 Apr 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.61 | −12.72 |
| M30 | Wolverhampton · Away8 Apr 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.89 | −14.61 |
| M31 | Brighton · Home15 Apr 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −15.88 |
| M32 | Brentford · Home26 Apr 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.88 | −17.75 |
| M33 | Arsenal · Away2 May 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.75 | −18.50 |
| M34 | Bournemouth · Away6 May 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −17.16 |
| M35 | Nottingham Forest · Home13 May 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.08 | −18.23 |
| M36 | Manchester City · Away21 May 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.73 | −18.96 |
| M37 | Manchester United · Away25 May 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.71 | −19.68 |
| M38 | Newcastle · Home28 May 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.28 | −19.96 |
| Total | 44 | −19.96 | |||