Points
67Points expected by the market
74.48Gap
−7.48Yield
−12.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 17 | 30 | −9.87 | −39.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 26 | +1.23 | +6.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 8 | −0.03 | −12.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.19 | +90.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 12 | 27 | −1.54 | −14.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 10 | +2.10 | +16.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 4 | +1.22 | +23.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.01 | +280.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 3 | −8.33 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 16 | −0.87 | +1.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 4 | −1.25 | −29.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.81 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fulham · Away6 Aug 2022 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.41 | −1.41 |
| M2 | Crystal Palace · Home15 Aug 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.44 | −2.85 |
| M3 | Manchester United · Away22 Aug 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.93 | −4.77 |
| M4 | Bournemouth · Home27 Aug 2022 | W 9-0 | 3 | +0.37 | −4.40 |
| M5 | Newcastle · Home31 Aug 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.59 | −3.81 |
| M6 | Everton · Away3 Sep 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.25 | −5.06 |
| M7 | Brighton · Home1 Oct 2022 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.17 | −6.23 |
| M8 | Arsenal · Away9 Oct 2022 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.34 | −7.57 |
| M9 | Manchester City · Home16 Oct 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.01 | −5.56 |
| M10 | West Ham · Home19 Oct 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.78 | −4.78 |
| M11 | Nottingham Forest · Away22 Oct 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.32 | −7.10 |
| M12 | Leeds · Home29 Oct 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.48 | −9.58 |
| M13 | Tottenham · Away6 Nov 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.33 | −8.25 |
| M14 | Southampton · Home12 Nov 2022 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.58 | −7.67 |
| M15 | Aston Villa · Away26 Dec 2022 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.08 | −6.59 |
| M16 | Leicester · Home30 Dec 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.54 | −6.05 |
| M17 | Brentford · Away2 Jan 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −2.10 | −8.15 |
| M18 | Brighton · Away14 Jan 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.49 | −9.65 |
| M19 | Chelsea · Home21 Jan 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.68 | −10.33 |
| M20 | Wolverhampton · Away4 Feb 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.76 | −12.09 |
| M21 | Everton · Home13 Feb 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.96 | −11.13 |
| M22 | Newcastle · Away18 Feb 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.70 | −9.43 |
| M23 | Crystal Palace · Away25 Feb 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.94 | −10.37 |
| M24 | Wolverhampton · Home1 Mar 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.88 | −9.48 |
| M25 | Manchester United · Home5 Mar 2023 | W 7-0 | 3 | +1.55 | −7.93 |
| M26 | Bournemouth · Away11 Mar 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.22 | −10.15 |
| M27 | Manchester City · Away1 Apr 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.81 | −10.97 |
| M28 | Chelsea · Away4 Apr 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.12 | −11.08 |
| M29 | Arsenal · Home9 Apr 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.33 | −11.41 |
| M30 | Leeds · Away17 Apr 2023 | W 6-1 | 3 | +1.08 | −10.33 |
| M31 | Nottingham Forest · Home22 Apr 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.41 | −9.92 |
| M32 | West Ham · Away26 Apr 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.30 | −8.62 |
| M33 | Tottenham · Home30 Apr 2023 | W 4-3 | 3 | +0.94 | −7.68 |
| M34 | Fulham · Home3 May 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.61 | −7.07 |
| M35 | Brentford · Home6 May 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.79 | −6.28 |
| M36 | Leicester · Away15 May 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.07 | −5.22 |
| M37 | Aston Villa · Home20 May 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.14 | −6.35 |
| M38 | Southampton · Away28 May 2023 | D 4-4 | 1 | −1.13 | −7.48 |
| Total | 67 | −7.48 | |||