Points
48Points expected by the market
46.55Gap
+1.45Yield
−13.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.31 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 22 | +4.48 | +36.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 16 | +1.25 | −5.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 9 | −2.96 | −45.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.31 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 16 | +3.51 | +35.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 6 | −2.11 | −63.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 4 | −0.15 | −20.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.97 | +40.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 10 | +3.36 | +63.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 5 | −2.82 | −56.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | West Ham · Home12 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| M2 | Liverpool · Away19 Aug 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.35 | −0.69 |
| M3 | Tottenham · Home26 Aug 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −1.77 |
| M4 | Brentford · Away2 Sep 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.15 | −1.62 |
| M5 | Chelsea · Home17 Sep 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.04 | −1.58 |
| M6 | Brighton · Away24 Sep 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.68 | −2.26 |
| M7 | Arsenal · Home30 Sep 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.69 | −2.95 |
| M8 | Everton · Away7 Oct 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.98 | −3.93 |
| M9 | Wolverhampton · Home21 Oct 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −5.44 |
| M10 | Burnley · Home28 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.40 | −4.04 |
| M11 | Manchester City · Away4 Nov 2023 | L 1-6 | 0 | −0.19 | −4.23 |
| M12 | Newcastle · Home11 Nov 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.01 | −2.22 |
| M13 | Sheffield United · Away25 Nov 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.40 | −0.82 |
| M14 | Aston Villa · Home3 Dec 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.97 |
| M15 | Crystal Palace · Away6 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.82 | +0.85 |
| M16 | Manchester United · Away9 Dec 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.17 | +3.03 |
| M17 | Nottingham Forest · Away23 Dec 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.56 | +4.59 |
| M18 | Fulham · Home26 Dec 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.27 | +5.86 |
| M19 | Tottenham · Away31 Dec 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.94 | +4.92 |
| M20 | Liverpool · Home21 Jan 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.87 | +4.05 |
| M21 | West Ham · Away1 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.28 | +3.77 |
| M22 | Nottingham Forest · Home4 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.97 | +2.81 |
| M23 | Fulham · Away10 Feb 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.32 | +1.48 |
| M24 | Newcastle · Away17 Feb 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.07 | +1.42 |
| M25 | Manchester City · Home24 Feb 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.64 | +0.78 |
| M26 | Burnley · Away3 Mar 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +2.08 |
| M27 | Sheffield United · Home9 Mar 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.31 | +0.77 |
| M28 | Luton · Home13 Mar 2024 | W 4-3 | 3 | +0.91 | +1.68 |
| M29 | Everton · Home30 Mar 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.43 | +3.10 |
| M30 | Crystal Palace · Home2 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.22 | +4.32 |
| M31 | Luton · Away6 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.74 | +2.58 |
| M32 | Manchester United · Home13 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.45 | +2.13 |
| M33 | Aston Villa · Away21 Apr 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.97 | +1.16 |
| M34 | Wolverhampton · Away24 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +2.73 |
| M35 | Brighton · Home28 Apr 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +4.03 |
| M36 | Arsenal · Away4 May 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.37 | +3.66 |
| M37 | Brentford · Home11 May 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | +2.04 |
| M38 | Chelsea · Away19 May 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.59 | +1.45 |
| Total | 48 | +1.45 | |||