Points
63Points expected by the market
64.02Gap
−1.02Yield
−14.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 11 | −3.09 | −35.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 41 | +4.07 | +14.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 9 | −1.25 | −31.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 2 | −0.75 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 10 | −1.90 | −22.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 21 | +1.61 | +19.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 5 | +1.21 | −18.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.13 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.19 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 20 | +2.46 | +10.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 4 | −2.46 | −39.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −0.88 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Liverpool · Home13 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| M2 | West Ham · Away20 Aug 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.59 | −1.79 |
| M3 | Luton · Home25 Aug 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.55 | −1.24 |
| M4 | Nottingham Forest · Home2 Sep 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.25 | −3.49 |
| M5 | Bournemouth · Away17 Sep 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.79 | −4.28 |
| M6 | Aston Villa · Home24 Sep 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.80 | −6.08 |
| M7 | Fulham · Away2 Oct 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.40 | −4.68 |
| M8 | Burnley · Away7 Oct 2023 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.04 | −3.64 |
| M9 | Arsenal · Home21 Oct 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.17 | −3.81 |
| M10 | Brentford · Home28 Oct 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.99 | −5.80 |
| M11 | Tottenham · Away6 Nov 2023 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.78 | −4.02 |
| M12 | Manchester City · Home12 Nov 2023 | D 4-4 | 1 | +0.13 | −3.89 |
| M13 | Newcastle · Away25 Nov 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.38 | −5.27 |
| M14 | Brighton · Home3 Dec 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.01 | −4.26 |
| M15 | Manchester United · Away6 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −5.69 |
| M16 | Everton · Away10 Dec 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.31 | −7.00 |
| M17 | Sheffield United · Home16 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.46 | −6.55 |
| M18 | Wolverhampton · Away24 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −8.14 |
| M19 | Crystal Palace · Home27 Dec 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.13 | −7.01 |
| M20 | Luton · Away30 Dec 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.96 | −6.05 |
| M21 | Fulham · Home13 Jan 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.01 | −5.04 |
| M22 | Liverpool · Away31 Jan 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.81 | −5.86 |
| M23 | Wolverhampton · Home4 Feb 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −2.08 | −7.94 |
| M24 | Crystal Palace · Away12 Feb 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.07 | −6.87 |
| M25 | Manchester City · Away17 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.49 | −6.38 |
| M26 | Brentford · Away2 Mar 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.59 | −6.97 |
| M27 | Newcastle · Home11 Mar 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.21 | −5.76 |
| M28 | Burnley · Home30 Mar 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.43 | −7.18 |
| M29 | Manchester United · Home4 Apr 2024 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.19 | −6.00 |
| M30 | Sheffield United · Away7 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.19 | −7.19 |
| M31 | Everton · Home15 Apr 2024 | W 6-0 | 3 | +1.06 | −6.13 |
| M32 | Arsenal · Away23 Apr 2024 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.56 | −6.69 |
| M33 | Aston Villa · Away27 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.12 | −6.81 |
| M34 | Tottenham · Home2 May 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.59 | −5.22 |
| M35 | West Ham · Home5 May 2024 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.89 | −4.34 |
| M36 | Nottingham Forest · Away11 May 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.19 | −3.15 |
| M37 | Brighton · Away15 May 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | −1.79 |
| M38 | Bournemouth · Home19 May 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.77 | −1.02 |
| Total | 63 | −1.02 | |||