Points
82Points expected by the market
78.23Gap
+3.77Yield
−7.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 20 | 50 | +1.88 | +3.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 25 | +3.72 | +5.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 6 | −1.97 | −49.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.14 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 15 | 40 | +3.62 | +10.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 6 | +2.03 | +63.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 2 | −0.53 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 10 | −1.74 | −18.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 19 | +1.69 | −7.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 4 | −1.44 | −24.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.14 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Chelsea · Away13 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| M2 | Bournemouth · Home19 Aug 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.48 | −0.06 |
| M3 | Newcastle · Away27 Aug 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.80 | +1.74 |
| M4 | Aston Villa · Home3 Sep 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.00 | +2.74 |
| M5 | Wolverhampton · Away16 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.05 | +3.79 |
| M6 | West Ham · Home24 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.72 | +4.50 |
| M7 | Tottenham · Away30 Sep 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.53 | +2.97 |
| M8 | Brighton · Away8 Oct 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.65 | +2.32 |
| M9 | Everton · Home21 Oct 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +3.07 |
| M10 | Nottingham Forest · Home29 Oct 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.51 | +3.58 |
| M11 | Luton · Away5 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.53 | +2.05 |
| M12 | Brentford · Home12 Nov 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.73 | +2.79 |
| M13 | Manchester City · Away25 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.14 | +2.93 |
| M14 | Fulham · Home3 Dec 2023 | W 4-3 | 3 | +0.53 | +3.46 |
| M15 | Sheffield United · Away6 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.44 | +3.90 |
| M16 | Crystal Palace · Away9 Dec 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.85 | +4.75 |
| M17 | Manchester United · Home17 Dec 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.31 | +3.45 |
| M18 | Arsenal · Home23 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | +3.01 |
| M19 | Burnley · Away26 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.74 | +3.75 |
| M20 | Newcastle · Home1 Jan 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.74 | +4.48 |
| M21 | Bournemouth · Away21 Jan 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +5.57 |
| M22 | Chelsea · Home31 Jan 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +6.61 |
| M23 | Arsenal · Away4 Feb 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.17 | +5.44 |
| M24 | Burnley · Home10 Feb 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.40 | +5.84 |
| M25 | Brentford · Away17 Feb 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +6.88 |
| M26 | Luton · Home21 Feb 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.58 | +7.46 |
| M27 | Nottingham Forest · Away2 Mar 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.98 | +8.44 |
| M28 | Manchester City · Home10 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.10 | +8.34 |
| M29 | Brighton · Home31 Mar 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.63 | +8.97 |
| M30 | Sheffield United · Home4 Apr 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.24 | +9.21 |
| M31 | Manchester United · Away7 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.01 | +8.20 |
| M32 | Crystal Palace · Home14 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.54 | +5.66 |
| M33 | Fulham · Away21 Apr 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.07 | +6.72 |
| M34 | Everton · Away24 Apr 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −2.24 | +4.48 |
| M35 | West Ham · Away27 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.05 | +3.43 |
| M36 | Tottenham · Home5 May 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.81 | +4.23 |
| M37 | Aston Villa · Away13 May 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.82 | +3.41 |
| M38 | Wolverhampton · Home19 May 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.36 | +3.77 |
| Total | 82 | +3.77 | |||