Points
91Points expected by the market
87.41Gap
+3.59Yield
−3.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 27 | 72 | +4.98 | +4.9% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 19 | +0.07 | −16.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.45 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 16 | 42 | +0.85 | −5.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 5 | −0.41 | −38.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 11 | 30 | +4.13 | +19.6% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 14 | +0.47 | −6.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.45 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Burnley · Away11 Aug 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.66 | +0.66 |
| M2 | Newcastle · Home19 Aug 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.18 | +1.84 |
| M3 | Sheffield United · Away27 Aug 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.47 | +2.31 |
| M4 | Fulham · Home2 Sep 2023 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.43 | +2.74 |
| M5 | West Ham · Away16 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.97 | +3.72 |
| M6 | Nottingham Forest · Home23 Sep 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.39 | +4.11 |
| M7 | Wolverhampton · Away30 Sep 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.27 | +1.83 |
| M8 | Arsenal · Away8 Oct 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.45 | +0.38 |
| M9 | Brighton · Home21 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.71 | +1.09 |
| M10 | Manchester United · Away29 Oct 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.98 | +2.07 |
| M11 | Bournemouth · Home4 Nov 2023 | W 6-1 | 3 | +0.28 | +2.35 |
| M12 | Chelsea · Away12 Nov 2023 | D 4-4 | 1 | −0.88 | +1.47 |
| M13 | Liverpool · Home25 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.92 | +0.55 |
| M14 | Tottenham · Home3 Dec 2023 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.45 | −0.90 |
| M15 | Aston Villa · Away6 Dec 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.99 | −2.88 |
| M16 | Luton · Away10 Dec 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.45 | −2.43 |
| M17 | Crystal Palace · Home16 Dec 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.58 | −4.01 |
| M18 | Everton · Away27 Dec 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.99 | −3.03 |
| M19 | Sheffield United · Home30 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.25 | −2.78 |
| M20 | Newcastle · Away13 Jan 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.05 | −1.73 |
| M21 | Burnley · Home31 Jan 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.31 | −1.42 |
| M22 | Brentford · Away5 Feb 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.72 | −0.70 |
| M23 | Everton · Home10 Feb 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.52 | −0.17 |
| M24 | Chelsea · Home17 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.33 | −1.50 |
| M25 | Brentford · Home20 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.45 | −1.05 |
| M26 | Bournemouth · Away24 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.83 | −0.22 |
| M27 | Manchester United · Home3 Mar 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.57 | +0.35 |
| M28 | Liverpool · Away10 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.31 |
| M29 | Arsenal · Home31 Mar 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.98 |
| M30 | Aston Villa · Home3 Apr 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.51 | −0.47 |
| M31 | Crystal Palace · Away6 Apr 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.69 | +0.22 |
| M32 | Luton · Home13 Apr 2024 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.28 | +0.50 |
| M33 | Brighton · Away25 Apr 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.70 | +1.20 |
| M34 | Nottingham Forest · Away28 Apr 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.60 | +1.80 |
| M35 | Wolverhampton · Home4 May 2024 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.28 | +2.08 |
| M36 | Fulham · Away11 May 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.53 | +2.61 |
| M37 | Tottenham · Away14 May 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +3.36 |
| M38 | West Ham · Home19 May 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.24 | +3.59 |
| Total | 91 | +3.59 | |||