Points
74Points expected by the market
76.93Gap
−2.93Yield
−20.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 17 | 42 | +1.86 | +1.4% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 25 | −5.31 | −34.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 6 | +0.37 | −36.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.15 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 12 | 27 | −1.64 | −13.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 11 | −0.45 | −7.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.56 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 15 | +3.51 | +36.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 14 | −4.86 | −51.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 5 | +0.93 | −15.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.15 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Wolverhampton · Home17 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| M2 | Aston Villa · Away24 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.10 | +1.48 |
| M3 | Brighton · Home31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.28 | +0.20 |
| M4 | Tottenham · Away15 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | +1.79 |
| M5 | Manchester City · Away22 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.15 | +1.94 |
| M6 | Leicester · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.46 | +2.40 |
| M7 | Southampton · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.43 | +2.83 |
| M8 | Bournemouth · Away19 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.89 | +0.94 |
| M9 | Liverpool · Home27 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.38 |
| M10 | Newcastle · Away2 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.74 | −1.37 |
| M11 | Chelsea · Away10 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | −1.85 |
| M12 | Nottingham Forest · Home23 Nov 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.75 | −1.10 |
| M13 | West Ham · Away30 Nov 2024 | W 5-2 | 3 | +0.79 | −0.31 |
| M14 | Manchester United · Home4 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.82 | +0.51 |
| M15 | Fulham · Away8 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.01 | −0.50 |
| M16 | Everton · Home14 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.48 | −1.97 |
| M17 | Crystal Palace · Away21 Dec 2024 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.84 | −1.13 |
| M18 | Ipswich · Home27 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.37 | −0.76 |
| M19 | Brentford · Away1 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.92 | +0.16 |
| M20 | Brighton · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.86 | −0.70 |
| M21 | Tottenham · Home15 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.74 | +0.04 |
| M22 | Aston Villa · Home18 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.06 | −1.02 |
| M23 | Wolverhampton · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.96 | −0.06 |
| M24 | Manchester City · Home2 Feb 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.25 | +1.19 |
| M25 | Leicester · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.64 | +1.83 |
| M26 | West Ham · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.41 | −0.59 |
| M27 | Nottingham Forest · Away26 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.76 | −1.35 |
| M28 | Manchester United · Away9 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.89 | −2.24 |
| M29 | Chelsea · Home16 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.07 | −1.17 |
| M30 | Fulham · Home1 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.84 | −0.32 |
| M31 | Everton · Away5 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | −1.02 |
| M32 | Brentford · Home12 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.99 | −2.01 |
| M33 | Ipswich · Away20 Apr 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.69 | −1.32 |
| M34 | Crystal Palace · Home23 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.26 | −2.58 |
| M35 | Bournemouth · Home3 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.94 | −4.52 |
| M36 | Liverpool · Away11 May 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | −4.70 |
| M37 | Newcastle · Home18 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −3.47 |
| M38 | Southampton · Away25 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.55 | −2.93 |
| Total | 74 | −2.93 | |||