Points
56Points expected by the market
52.90Gap
+3.10Yield
+16.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.58 | −33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 21 | −0.96 | −9.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 15 | −2.78 | −43.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 17 | +8.41 | +126.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.58 | −33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 15 | −1.43 | −18.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 4 | −2.96 | −55.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 6 | +3.57 | +256.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.47 | +14.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | +0.17 | −36.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 11 | +4.84 | +77.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Nottingham Forest · Away17 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.17 |
| M2 | Newcastle · Home25 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.55 |
| M3 | Everton · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.53 | +0.98 |
| M4 | Chelsea · Home14 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | −0.20 |
| M5 | Liverpool · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.42 | −0.62 |
| M6 | Southampton · Home30 Sep 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.90 | +0.28 |
| M7 | Leicester · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.67 | −1.39 |
| M8 | Arsenal · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.15 | +0.76 |
| M9 | Aston Villa · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.84 |
| M10 | Manchester City · Home2 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.29 | +3.13 |
| M11 | Brentford · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.35 | +1.78 |
| M12 | Brighton · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.44 | +0.34 |
| M13 | Wolverhampton · Away30 Nov 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.62 | +1.96 |
| M14 | Tottenham · Home5 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +3.39 |
| M15 | Ipswich · Away8 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.26 | +4.65 |
| M16 | West Ham · Home16 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.89 | +3.76 |
| M17 | Manchester United · Away22 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.06 | +5.82 |
| M18 | Crystal Palace · Home26 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.65 | +5.18 |
| M19 | Fulham · Away29 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.19 | +4.99 |
| M20 | Everton · Home4 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | +6.05 |
| M21 | Chelsea · Away14 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.28 | +6.33 |
| M22 | Newcastle · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +2.20 | +8.53 |
| M23 | Nottingham Forest · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +9.82 |
| M24 | Liverpool · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.86 | +8.96 |
| M25 | Southampton · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.89 | +9.84 |
| M26 | Wolverhampton · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.99 | +7.86 |
| M27 | Brighton · Away25 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.04 | +6.81 |
| M28 | Tottenham · Away9 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.46 | +6.36 |
| M29 | Brentford · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.87 | +4.49 |
| M30 | Ipswich · Home2 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.26 | +2.23 |
| M31 | West Ham · Away5 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.48 | +1.75 |
| M32 | Fulham · Home14 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +3.18 |
| M33 | Crystal Palace · Away19 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.33 | +2.85 |
| M34 | Manchester United · Home27 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | +2.13 |
| M35 | Arsenal · Away3 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.18 | +4.31 |
| M36 | Aston Villa · Home10 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.39 | +2.92 |
| M37 | Manchester City · Away20 May 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.51 | +2.42 |
| M38 | Leicester · Home25 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.68 | +3.10 |
| Total | 56 | +3.10 | |||