Points
53Points expected by the market
48.44Gap
+4.56Yield
−6.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 11 | −4.07 | −37.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 24 | +2.21 | −10.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 18 | +6.42 | +16.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 7 | −4.31 | −48.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 13 | +1.96 | −10.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 5 | +0.65 | −25.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 4 | +0.24 | −2.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | +0.25 | −10.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 13 | +5.77 | +39.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Brentford · Away18 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −1.40 |
| M2 | West Ham · Home24 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −3.11 |
| M3 | Chelsea · Away1 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | −2.92 |
| M4 | Leicester · Home14 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.97 | −3.88 |
| M5 | Manchester United · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.28 | −4.17 |
| M6 | Everton · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −5.54 |
| M7 | Liverpool · Home5 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −6.35 |
| M8 | Nottingham Forest · Away21 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −7.54 |
| M9 | Tottenham · Home27 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.98 | −5.55 |
| M10 | Wolverhampton · Away2 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.24 | −5.79 |
| M11 | Fulham · Home9 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.15 | −6.94 |
| M12 | Aston Villa · Away23 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.17 | −6.77 |
| M13 | Newcastle · Home30 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −6.94 |
| M14 | Ipswich · Away3 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | −5.48 |
| M15 | Manchester City · Home7 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.14 | −5.34 |
| M16 | Brighton · Away15 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.03 | −3.31 |
| M17 | Arsenal · Home21 Dec 2024 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.62 | −3.93 |
| M18 | Bournemouth · Away26 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | −4.02 |
| M19 | Southampton · Home29 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.90 | −3.12 |
| M20 | Chelsea · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | −3.17 |
| M21 | Leicester · Away15 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.26 | −1.91 |
| M22 | West Ham · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.62 | −0.29 |
| M23 | Brentford · Home26 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −2.00 |
| M24 | Manchester United · Away2 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.13 | +0.13 |
| M25 | Everton · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.73 | −1.60 |
| M26 | Fulham · Away22 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.95 | +0.34 |
| M27 | Aston Villa · Home25 Feb 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.45 | +1.79 |
| M28 | Ipswich · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.92 | +2.71 |
| M29 | Southampton · Away2 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.02 | +1.69 |
| M30 | Brighton · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.58 | +3.27 |
| M31 | Manchester City · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 2-5 | 0 | −0.78 | +2.49 |
| M32 | Newcastle · Away16 Apr 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.80 | +1.69 |
| M33 | Bournemouth · Home19 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.39 | +1.29 |
| M34 | Arsenal · Away23 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.46 | +1.76 |
| M35 | Nottingham Forest · Home5 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | +1.17 |
| M36 | Tottenham · Away11 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | +2.64 |
| M37 | Wolverhampton · Home20 May 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.50 | +4.14 |
| M38 | Liverpool · Away25 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.43 | +4.56 |
| Total | 53 | +4.56 | |||