Points
48Points expected by the market
41.92Gap
+6.08Yield
+14.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.79 | +43.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +0.87 | +1.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 14 | −2.99 | −35.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 23 | +7.41 | +48.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.79 | +43.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +0.87 | +1.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 9 | −2.97 | −40.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 4 | −0.44 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 5 | −0.02 | −23.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 19 | +7.85 | +98.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Brighton · Home17 Aug 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.22 | −1.22 |
| M2 | Tottenham · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.54 | −1.77 |
| M3 | Bournemouth · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.25 | −3.02 |
| M4 | Aston Villa · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.79 | −3.82 |
| M5 | Leicester · Away21 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | −3.90 |
| M6 | Crystal Palace · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.66 | −2.23 |
| M7 | Newcastle · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.04 | −2.27 |
| M8 | Ipswich · Away19 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.77 | −0.50 |
| M9 | Fulham · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.83 |
| M10 | Southampton · Away2 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −2.18 |
| M11 | West Ham · Away9 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | −2.29 |
| M12 | Brentford · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.51 | −2.80 |
| M13 | Manchester United · Away1 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.75 | −3.54 |
| M14 | Wolverhampton · Home4 Dec 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −2.20 |
| M15 | Arsenal · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.63 | −1.57 |
| M16 | Chelsea · Home22 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.17 | −1.40 |
| M17 | Manchester City · Away26 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.90 |
| M18 | Nottingham Forest · Home29 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −2.28 |
| M19 | Bournemouth · Away4 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −3.09 |
| M20 | Aston Villa · Home15 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −4.23 |
| M21 | Tottenham · Home19 Jan 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.60 | −2.63 |
| M22 | Brighton · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.21 | −0.42 |
| M23 | Leicester · Home1 Feb 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +0.82 |
| M24 | Liverpool · Home12 Feb 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.40 | +1.22 |
| M25 | Crystal Palace · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.03 | +3.25 |
| M26 | Manchester United · Home22 Feb 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.40 | +2.86 |
| M27 | Brentford · Away26 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | +2.78 |
| M28 | Wolverhampton · Away8 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | +2.44 |
| M29 | West Ham · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.65 | +1.79 |
| M30 | Liverpool · Away2 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.62 | +1.17 |
| M31 | Arsenal · Home5 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.16 |
| M32 | Nottingham Forest · Away12 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.03 | +3.19 |
| M33 | Manchester City · Home19 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.97 | +2.22 |
| M34 | Chelsea · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.60 | +1.63 |
| M35 | Ipswich · Home3 May 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.07 | +0.56 |
| M36 | Fulham · Away10 May 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.15 | +2.71 |
| M37 | Southampton · Home18 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.79 | +3.50 |
| M38 | Newcastle · Away25 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.58 | +6.08 |
| Total | 48 | +6.08 | |||