Points
54Points expected by the market
50.10Gap
+3.90Yield
+15.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 20 | −0.43 | +3.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 19 | −0.38 | −0.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 15 | +4.72 | +44.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 14 | −2.61 | −12.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 8 | −1.84 | −21.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 4 | +1.59 | +39.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 6 | +2.18 | +72.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 11 | +1.46 | +19.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 11 | +3.13 | +46.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Manchester United · Away16 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| M2 | Leicester · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.20 | +0.40 |
| M3 | Ipswich · Away31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.08 |
| M4 | West Ham · Home14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| M5 | Newcastle · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.73 | +1.12 |
| M6 | Nottingham Forest · Away28 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.74 | +2.87 |
| M7 | Manchester City · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.41 | +2.45 |
| M8 | Aston Villa · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.44 | +1.01 |
| M9 | Everton · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.63 |
| M10 | Brentford · Home4 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.31 | +1.94 |
| M11 | Crystal Palace · Away9 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.44 | +3.38 |
| M12 | Wolverhampton · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −2.07 | +1.30 |
| M13 | Tottenham · Away1 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | +1.26 |
| M14 | Brighton · Home5 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.62 | +2.88 |
| M15 | Arsenal · Home8 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.23 | +3.11 |
| M16 | Liverpool · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.54 | +3.65 |
| M17 | Southampton · Home22 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.01 | +2.64 |
| M18 | Chelsea · Away26 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.35 | +4.99 |
| M19 | Bournemouth · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.53 | +4.46 |
| M20 | Ipswich · Home5 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.07 | +3.39 |
| M21 | West Ham · Away14 Jan 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.48 | +1.91 |
| M22 | Leicester · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.15 | +3.06 |
| M23 | Manchester United · Home26 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.48 | +1.58 |
| M24 | Newcastle · Away1 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.16 | +3.74 |
| M25 | Nottingham Forest · Home15 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.38 | +5.12 |
| M26 | Crystal Palace · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.67 | +3.46 |
| M27 | Wolverhampton · Away25 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +5.23 |
| M28 | Brighton · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.02 | +4.21 |
| M29 | Tottenham · Home16 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.20 | +5.41 |
| M30 | Arsenal · Away1 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.61 | +4.80 |
| M31 | Liverpool · Home6 Apr 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.04 | +6.84 |
| M32 | Bournemouth · Away14 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.15 | +5.69 |
| M33 | Chelsea · Home20 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.21 | +4.48 |
| M34 | Southampton · Away26 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +5.50 |
| M35 | Aston Villa · Away3 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | +4.56 |
| M36 | Everton · Home10 May 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.89 | +2.67 |
| M37 | Brentford · Away18 May 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.92 | +4.59 |
| M38 | Manchester City · Home25 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.69 | +3.90 |
| Total | 54 | +3.90 | |||