Points
22Points expected by the market
31.74Gap
−9.74Yield
−22.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.76 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 3 | −8.44 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 28 | 19 | +0.45 | +5.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.76 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 2 | −6.97 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 5 | −3.60 | −32.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.47 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 14 | +4.05 | +29.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Liverpool · Home17 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.53 | −0.53 |
| M2 | Manchester City · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.19 | −0.72 |
| M3 | Fulham · Home31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.95 |
| M4 | Brighton · Away14 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.60 |
| M5 | Southampton · Away21 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.86 |
| M6 | Aston Villa · Home29 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.92 |
| M7 | West Ham · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.98 | −1.90 |
| M8 | Everton · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.49 | −3.39 |
| M9 | Brentford · Away26 Oct 2024 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.80 | −4.19 |
| M10 | Leicester · Home2 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.49 | −4.69 |
| M11 | Tottenham · Away10 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.59 | −2.10 |
| M12 | Manchester United · Home24 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | −1.90 |
| M13 | Nottingham Forest · Away30 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.84 | −2.74 |
| M14 | Crystal Palace · Home3 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | −3.91 |
| M15 | Bournemouth · Home8 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −4.92 |
| M16 | Wolverhampton · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.98 | −2.94 |
| M17 | Newcastle · Home21 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.85 | −3.79 |
| M18 | Arsenal · Away27 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.26 | −4.06 |
| M19 | Chelsea · Home30 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.43 | −1.62 |
| M20 | Fulham · Away5 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.29 | −1.33 |
| M21 | Brighton · Home16 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −2.35 |
| M22 | Manchester City · Home19 Jan 2025 | L 0-6 | 0 | −0.56 | −2.90 |
| M23 | Liverpool · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.22 | −3.12 |
| M24 | Southampton · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.76 | −4.88 |
| M25 | Aston Villa · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.40 | −4.48 |
| M26 | Tottenham · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.10 | −5.58 |
| M27 | Manchester United · Away26 Feb 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.67 | −6.25 |
| M28 | Crystal Palace · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.69 | −6.94 |
| M29 | Nottingham Forest · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.99 | −7.93 |
| M30 | Bournemouth · Away2 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.44 | −5.49 |
| M31 | Wolverhampton · Home5 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | −6.80 |
| M32 | Chelsea · Away13 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.66 | −6.14 |
| M33 | Arsenal · Home20 Apr 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.50 | −6.64 |
| M34 | Newcastle · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.30 | −6.94 |
| M35 | Everton · Away3 May 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.29 | −6.65 |
| M36 | Brentford · Home10 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.71 | −7.37 |
| M37 | Leicester · Away18 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −8.58 |
| M38 | West Ham · Home25 May 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.17 | −9.74 |
| Total | 22 | −9.74 | |||