Points
25Points expected by the market
30.74Gap
−5.74Yield
−47.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.64 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 13 | +3.87 | +57.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 30 | 11 | −8.97 | −69.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.64 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 9 | +2.25 | +53.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 5 | −5.07 | −73.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 4 | +1.62 | +66.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 6 | −3.91 | −67.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Tottenham · Home19 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.14 |
| M2 | Fulham · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.95 | −0.80 |
| M3 | Aston Villa · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.98 | −1.78 |
| M4 | Crystal Palace · Away14 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.21 | −1.57 |
| M5 | Everton · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | −2.21 |
| M6 | Arsenal · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.32 | −2.53 |
| M7 | Bournemouth · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.92 | −0.61 |
| M8 | Southampton · Away19 Oct 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.86 | +1.25 |
| M9 | Nottingham Forest · Home25 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.26 | −0.01 |
| M10 | Ipswich · Away2 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.25 |
| M11 | Manchester United · Away10 Nov 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.49 | −0.74 |
| M12 | Chelsea · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.62 | −1.36 |
| M13 | Brentford · Away30 Nov 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.77 | −2.13 |
| M14 | West Ham · Home3 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.76 | −0.37 |
| M15 | Brighton · Home8 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.18 |
| M16 | Newcastle · Away14 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.46 | −0.64 |
| M17 | Wolverhampton · Home22 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.26 | −1.90 |
| M18 | Liverpool · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.18 | −2.09 |
| M19 | Manchester City · Home29 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.45 | −2.53 |
| M20 | Aston Villa · Away4 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.51 | −3.04 |
| M21 | Crystal Palace · Home15 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −4.04 |
| M22 | Fulham · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.89 | −4.93 |
| M23 | Tottenham · Away26 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.29 | −2.64 |
| M24 | Everton · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.95 | −3.59 |
| M25 | Arsenal · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.46 | −4.05 |
| M26 | Brentford · Home21 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.04 | −5.09 |
| M27 | West Ham · Away27 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.86 | −5.95 |
| M28 | Chelsea · Away9 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.37 | −6.33 |
| M29 | Manchester United · Home16 Mar 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −7.22 |
| M30 | Manchester City · Away2 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.34 | −7.57 |
| M31 | Newcastle · Home7 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.61 | −8.18 |
| M32 | Brighton · Away12 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.55 | −7.62 |
| M33 | Liverpool · Home20 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.38 | −8.00 |
| M34 | Wolverhampton · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.69 | −8.69 |
| M35 | Southampton · Home3 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.54 | −7.15 |
| M36 | Nottingham Forest · Away11 May 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.44 | −6.71 |
| M37 | Ipswich · Home18 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | −5.24 |
| M38 | Bournemouth · Away25 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.51 | −5.74 |
| Total | 25 | −5.74 | |||