Points
71Points expected by the market
76.64Gap
−5.64Yield
−16.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 16 | 41 | +2.37 | +3.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 18 | 27 | −6.27 | −28.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.34 | +17.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −2.08 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 11 | 28 | +1.11 | +0.9% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 11 | −0.17 | −6.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.34 | +17.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 13 | +1.26 | +8.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 16 | −6.10 | −39.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −2.08 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Chelsea · Away18 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +1.29 |
| M2 | Ipswich · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.27 | +1.57 |
| M3 | West Ham · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.76 | +2.33 |
| M4 | Brentford · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.46 | +2.79 |
| M5 | Arsenal · Home22 Sep 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.89 | +1.90 |
| M6 | Newcastle · Away28 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.96 | +0.94 |
| M7 | Fulham · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.56 | +1.51 |
| M8 | Wolverhampton · Away20 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.70 | +2.20 |
| M9 | Southampton · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.33 | +2.54 |
| M10 | Bournemouth · Away2 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.07 | +0.46 |
| M11 | Brighton · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.83 | −1.37 |
| M12 | Tottenham · Home23 Nov 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −2.23 | −3.60 |
| M13 | Liverpool · Away1 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −4.67 |
| M14 | Nottingham Forest · Home4 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.65 | −4.03 |
| M15 | Crystal Palace · Away7 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.90 | −4.93 |
| M16 | Manchester United · Home15 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.07 | −7.00 |
| M17 | Aston Villa · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.58 | −8.58 |
| M18 | Everton · Home26 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.32 | −9.89 |
| M19 | Leicester · Away29 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.60 | −9.30 |
| M20 | West Ham · Home4 Jan 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.55 | −8.74 |
| M21 | Brentford · Away14 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.01 | −9.76 |
| M22 | Ipswich · Away19 Jan 2025 | W 6-0 | 3 | +0.74 | −9.01 |
| M23 | Chelsea · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.52 | −7.50 |
| M24 | Arsenal · Away2 Feb 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.00 | −8.50 |
| M25 | Newcastle · Home15 Feb 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.37 | −7.13 |
| M26 | Liverpool · Home23 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −8.31 |
| M27 | Tottenham · Away26 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.19 | −7.11 |
| M28 | Nottingham Forest · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.73 | −8.85 |
| M29 | Brighton · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.83 | −9.68 |
| M30 | Leicester · Home2 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.47 | −9.21 |
| M31 | Manchester United · Away6 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.63 | −9.83 |
| M32 | Crystal Palace · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 5-2 | 3 | +1.01 | −8.82 |
| M33 | Everton · Away19 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −7.59 |
| M34 | Aston Villa · Home22 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.24 | −6.35 |
| M35 | Wolverhampton · Home2 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.67 | −5.68 |
| M36 | Southampton · Away10 May 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.54 | −7.21 |
| M37 | Bournemouth · Home20 May 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.68 | −6.53 |
| M38 | Fulham · Away25 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.90 | −5.64 |
| Total | 71 | −5.64 | |||