Points
42Points expected by the market
54.32Gap
−12.32Yield
−31.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.25 | +30.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 19 | −7.05 | −27.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 8 | −7.57 | −75.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 9 | +1.05 | +2.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.25 | +30.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 12 | −4.97 | −28.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 2 | −4.71 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 4 | +1.29 | +58.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 7 | −2.08 | −27.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 6 | −2.86 | −57.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 5 | −0.24 | −21.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fulham · Home16 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.03 | +1.03 |
| M2 | Brighton · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.29 | −0.25 |
| M3 | Liverpool · Home1 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.05 | −1.30 |
| M4 | Southampton · Away14 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.16 | −0.14 |
| M5 | Crystal Palace · Away21 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.59 |
| M6 | Tottenham · Home29 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.61 | −2.20 |
| M7 | Aston Villa · Away6 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.19 | −2.39 |
| M8 | Brentford · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.06 | −1.33 |
| M9 | West Ham · Away27 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −2.93 |
| M10 | Chelsea · Home3 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −3.29 |
| M11 | Leicester · Home10 Nov 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.66 | −2.62 |
| M12 | Ipswich · Away24 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.96 | −3.58 |
| M13 | Everton · Home1 Dec 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.98 | −2.60 |
| M14 | Arsenal · Away4 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.62 | −3.22 |
| M15 | Nottingham Forest · Home7 Dec 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.95 | −5.17 |
| M16 | Manchester City · Away15 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.27 | −2.89 |
| M17 | Bournemouth · Home22 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.80 | −4.70 |
| M18 | Wolverhampton · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.83 | −6.53 |
| M19 | Newcastle · Home30 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −7.85 |
| M20 | Liverpool · Away5 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.46 | −7.39 |
| M21 | Southampton · Home16 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.59 | −6.80 |
| M22 | Brighton · Home19 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.53 | −8.33 |
| M23 | Fulham · Away26 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −6.57 |
| M24 | Crystal Palace · Home2 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.87 | −8.43 |
| M25 | Tottenham · Away16 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −9.62 |
| M26 | Everton · Away22 Feb 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.30 | −9.92 |
| M27 | Ipswich · Home26 Feb 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.88 | −9.04 |
| M28 | Arsenal · Home9 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.16 | −8.87 |
| M29 | Leicester · Away16 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.15 | −7.72 |
| M30 | Nottingham Forest · Away1 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.21 | −8.93 |
| M31 | Manchester City · Home6 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | −9.04 |
| M32 | Newcastle · Away13 Apr 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.77 | −9.81 |
| M33 | Wolverhampton · Home20 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.40 | −11.21 |
| M34 | Bournemouth · Away27 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −11.24 |
| M35 | Brentford · Away4 May 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.82 | −12.06 |
| M36 | West Ham · Home11 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.69 | −13.75 |
| M37 | Chelsea · Away16 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.74 | −14.49 |
| M38 | Aston Villa · Home25 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.17 | −12.32 |
| Total | 42 | −12.32 | |||