Points
12Points expected by the market
28.91Gap
−16.91Yield
−82.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 4 | −5.51 | −61.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 31 | 8 | −11.40 | −87.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 4 | −4.24 | −55.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 2 | −6.85 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.27 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 6 | −4.55 | −77.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Newcastle · Away17 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.57 | −0.57 |
| M2 | Nottingham Forest · Home24 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | −2.07 |
| M3 | Brentford · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −2.97 |
| M4 | Manchester United · Home14 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −3.90 |
| M5 | Ipswich · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.46 | −4.36 |
| M6 | Bournemouth · Away30 Sep 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.68 | −5.04 |
| M7 | Arsenal · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.31 | −5.35 |
| M8 | Leicester · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.59 | −6.94 |
| M9 | Manchester City · Away26 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.24 | −7.17 |
| M10 | Everton · Home2 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | −5.53 |
| M11 | Wolverhampton · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.99 | −6.52 |
| M12 | Liverpool · Home24 Nov 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.48 | −7.00 |
| M13 | Brighton · Away29 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.43 | −6.58 |
| M14 | Chelsea · Home4 Dec 2024 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.49 | −7.07 |
| M15 | Aston Villa · Away7 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.48 | −7.55 |
| M16 | Tottenham · Home15 Dec 2024 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.94 | −8.49 |
| M17 | Fulham · Away22 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.24 | −8.25 |
| M18 | West Ham · Home26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.20 | −9.46 |
| M19 | Crystal Palace · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −10.14 |
| M20 | Brentford · Home4 Jan 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.13 | −11.27 |
| M21 | Manchester United · Away16 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.43 | −11.70 |
| M22 | Nottingham Forest · Away19 Jan 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.55 | −12.25 |
| M23 | Newcastle · Home25 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.64 | −12.89 |
| M24 | Ipswich · Away1 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.02 | −10.87 |
| M25 | Bournemouth · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.68 | −11.55 |
| M26 | Brighton · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.72 | −12.27 |
| M27 | Chelsea · Away25 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.30 | −12.57 |
| M28 | Liverpool · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.21 | −12.77 |
| M29 | Wolverhampton · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −13.80 |
| M30 | Crystal Palace · Home2 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.26 | −13.54 |
| M31 | Tottenham · Away6 Apr 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.55 | −14.09 |
| M32 | Aston Villa · Home12 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.68 | −14.77 |
| M33 | West Ham · Away19 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.24 | −14.53 |
| M34 | Fulham · Home26 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −15.32 |
| M35 | Leicester · Away3 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −16.59 |
| M36 | Manchester City · Home10 May 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.67 | −15.93 |
| M37 | Everton · Away18 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.58 | −16.51 |
| M38 | Arsenal · Home25 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.40 | −16.91 |
| Total | 12 | −16.91 | |||