Points
38Points expected by the market
52.46Gap
−14.46Yield
−28.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 12 | +0.69 | +13.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 12 | −2.62 | −27.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 10 | −8.04 | −37.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 4 | −4.48 | −36.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 12 | +0.69 | +13.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 5 | −2.48 | −51.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 4 | −4.08 | −63.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 0 | −3.77 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | −0.14 | −4.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 6 | −3.97 | −17.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 4 | −0.71 | −0.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leicester · Away19 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| M2 | Everton · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.72 | −0.19 |
| M3 | Newcastle · Away1 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −1.53 |
| M4 | Arsenal · Home15 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.31 | −2.84 |
| M5 | Brentford · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.85 | −2.00 |
| M6 | Manchester United · Away29 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.86 | −0.13 |
| M7 | Brighton · Away6 Oct 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.51 | −1.65 |
| M8 | West Ham · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.83 | −0.81 |
| M9 | Crystal Palace · Away27 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.74 | −2.55 |
| M10 | Aston Villa · Home3 Nov 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.28 | −1.28 |
| M11 | Ipswich · Home10 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.44 | −3.72 |
| M12 | Manchester City · Away23 Nov 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +2.40 | −1.32 |
| M13 | Fulham · Home1 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | −2.03 |
| M14 | Bournemouth · Away5 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −3.22 |
| M15 | Chelsea · Home8 Dec 2024 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.23 | −4.45 |
| M16 | Southampton · Away15 Dec 2024 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.16 | −3.30 |
| M17 | Liverpool · Home22 Dec 2024 | L 3-6 | 0 | −0.82 | −4.12 |
| M18 | Nottingham Forest · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | −5.30 |
| M19 | Wolverhampton · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.95 | −6.25 |
| M20 | Newcastle · Home4 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | −7.22 |
| M21 | Arsenal · Away15 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.56 | −7.78 |
| M22 | Everton · Away19 Jan 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.31 | −9.09 |
| M23 | Leicester · Home26 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.10 | −11.19 |
| M24 | Brentford · Away2 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.91 | −9.28 |
| M25 | Manchester United · Home16 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.44 | −7.84 |
| M26 | Ipswich · Away22 Feb 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.36 | −6.49 |
| M27 | Manchester City · Home26 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.97 | −7.46 |
| M28 | Bournemouth · Home9 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.29 | −7.74 |
| M29 | Fulham · Away16 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.96 | −8.70 |
| M30 | Chelsea · Away3 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.85 | −9.55 |
| M31 | Southampton · Home6 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.73 | −8.82 |
| M32 | Wolverhampton · Away13 Apr 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.20 | −10.02 |
| M33 | Nottingham Forest · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.48 | −11.49 |
| M34 | Liverpool · Away27 Apr 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.35 | −11.85 |
| M35 | West Ham · Away4 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.03 | −11.81 |
| M36 | Crystal Palace · Home11 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −13.02 |
| M37 | Aston Villa · Away16 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.43 | −13.45 |
| M38 | Brighton · Home25 May 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.01 | −14.46 |
| Total | 38 | −14.46 | |||