Points
42Points expected by the market
40.96Gap
+1.04Yield
−3.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 9 | +1.74 | +37.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 21 | +3.25 | +20.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 21 | 12 | −3.96 | −26.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.44 | +15.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 12 | −0.37 | −13.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 3 | −2.73 | −37.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.31 | +104.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 9 | +3.62 | +95.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 9 | −1.23 | −20.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Arsenal · Away17 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| M2 | Chelsea · Home25 Aug 2024 | L 2-6 | 0 | −0.99 | −1.26 |
| M3 | Nottingham Forest · Away31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −1.30 |
| M4 | Newcastle · Home15 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −2.36 |
| M5 | Aston Villa · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.77 | −3.13 |
| M6 | Liverpool · Home28 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.49 | −3.62 |
| M7 | Brentford · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 3-5 | 0 | −1.07 | −4.69 |
| M8 | Manchester City · Home20 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.52 | −5.21 |
| M9 | Brighton · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.27 | −4.94 |
| M10 | Crystal Palace · Home2 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.47 | −5.42 |
| M11 | Southampton · Home9 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −4.17 |
| M12 | Fulham · Away23 Nov 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +2.29 | −1.88 |
| M13 | Bournemouth · Home30 Nov 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.34 | −3.23 |
| M14 | Everton · Away4 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.06 | −4.28 |
| M15 | West Ham · Away9 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.93 | −5.21 |
| M16 | Ipswich · Home14 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −6.92 |
| M17 | Leicester · Away22 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.54 | −5.38 |
| M18 | Manchester United · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.09 | −3.29 |
| M19 | Tottenham · Away29 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.16 | −3.13 |
| M20 | Nottingham Forest · Home6 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.02 | −4.15 |
| M21 | Newcastle · Away15 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.55 | −4.70 |
| M22 | Chelsea · Away20 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.62 | −5.32 |
| M23 | Arsenal · Home25 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.73 | −6.04 |
| M24 | Aston Villa · Home1 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.81 | −4.23 |
| M25 | Liverpool · Away16 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.38 | −4.61 |
| M26 | Bournemouth · Away22 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.22 | −2.39 |
| M27 | Fulham · Home25 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.48 | −3.88 |
| M28 | Everton · Home8 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | −4.22 |
| M29 | Southampton · Away15 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.31 | −2.91 |
| M30 | West Ham · Home1 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −1.42 |
| M31 | Ipswich · Away5 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | +0.19 |
| M32 | Tottenham · Home13 Apr 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.47 | +1.65 |
| M33 | Manchester United · Away20 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.68 | +3.33 |
| M34 | Leicester · Home26 Apr 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +4.24 |
| M35 | Manchester City · Away2 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.49 | +3.75 |
| M36 | Brighton · Home10 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.25 | +2.49 |
| M37 | Crystal Palace · Away20 May 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.21 | +1.28 |
| M38 | Brentford · Home25 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | +1.04 |
| Total | 42 | +1.04 | |||