Points
85Points expected by the market
78.78Gap
+6.22Yield
+0.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 19 | 50 | +5.87 | +11.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 31 | +1.55 | −2.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.26 | −26.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.93 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 15 | 42 | +7.12 | +23.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 5 | −2.86 | −62.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 8 | −1.25 | −32.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 26 | +4.41 | +19.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 4 | −0.26 | −26.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.93 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Manchester United · Away17 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.27 | +1.27 |
| M2 | Leeds · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.67 | +1.94 |
| M3 | Liverpool · Away31 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.23 | +0.71 |
| M4 | Nottingham Forest · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.78 | +1.49 |
| M5 | Manchester City · Home21 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.83 |
| M6 | Newcastle · Away28 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.42 | +2.25 |
| M7 | West Ham · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.46 | +2.71 |
| M8 | Fulham · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.87 | +3.58 |
| M9 | Crystal Palace · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.74 | +4.32 |
| M10 | Burnley · Away1 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.54 | +4.86 |
| M11 | Sunderland · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.17 | +3.69 |
| M12 | Tottenham · Home23 Nov 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.84 | +4.53 |
| M13 | Chelsea · Away30 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | +4.08 |
| M14 | Brentford · Home3 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.80 | +4.88 |
| M15 | Aston Villa · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.77 | +3.11 |
| M16 | Wolverhampton · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.34 | +3.45 |
| M17 | Everton · Away20 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.92 | +4.37 |
| M18 | Brighton · Home27 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.67 | +5.04 |
| M19 | Aston Villa · Home30 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.74 | +5.78 |
| M20 | Bournemouth · Away3 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.90 | +6.69 |
| M21 | Liverpool · Home8 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.04 | +5.65 |
| M22 | Nottingham Forest · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.02 | +4.63 |
| M23 | Manchester United · Home25 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −2.06 | +2.57 |
| M24 | Leeds · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.96 | +3.52 |
| M25 | Sunderland · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.57 | +4.09 |
| M26 | Brentford · Away12 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.94 | +3.16 |
| M27 | Wolverhampton · Away18 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.45 | +1.70 |
| M28 | Tottenham · Away22 Feb 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.83 | +2.53 |
| M29 | Chelsea · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.90 | +3.43 |
| M30 | Brighton · Away4 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | +4.49 |
| M31 | Everton · Home14 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.73 | +5.22 |
| M32 | Bournemouth · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.14 | +3.09 |
| M33 | Manchester City · Away19 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.93 | +2.15 |
| M34 | Newcastle · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.76 | +2.91 |
| M35 | Fulham · Home2 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.83 | +3.74 |
| M36 | West Ham · Away10 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.94 | +4.68 |
| M37 | Burnley · Home18 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.31 | +4.99 |
| M38 | Crystal Palace · Away24 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.23 | +6.22 |
| Total | 85 | +6.22 | |||