Points
65Points expected by the market
55.14Gap
+9.86Yield
+39.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 4 | −0.29 | −27.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 23 | −0.11 | +1.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 26 | +3.90 | +19.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 12 | +6.35 | +175.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.84 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 19 | +2.61 | +22.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 10 | −0.27 | +3.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 6 | +4.11 | +317.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.13 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 4 | −2.72 | −45.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 16 | +4.17 | +32.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 6 | +2.24 | +118.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Newcastle · Home16 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| M2 | Brentford · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | −2.05 |
| M3 | Crystal Palace · Home31 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.63 | −3.68 |
| M4 | Everton · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.32 | −4.00 |
| M5 | Sunderland · Away21 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | −4.68 |
| M6 | Fulham · Home28 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.44 | −3.24 |
| M7 | Burnley · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.93 | −2.31 |
| M8 | Tottenham · Away19 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.83 | −0.47 |
| M9 | Manchester City · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.07 | +1.59 |
| M10 | Liverpool · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.83 | +0.76 |
| M11 | Bournemouth · Home9 Nov 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.48 | +2.24 |
| M12 | Leeds · Away23 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.46 | +3.70 |
| M13 | Wolverhampton · Home30 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.84 | +4.54 |
| M14 | Brighton · Away3 Dec 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.82 | +6.36 |
| M15 | Arsenal · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.05 | +8.41 |
| M16 | West Ham · Away14 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.42 | +9.82 |
| M17 | Manchester United · Home21 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.32 | +11.15 |
| M18 | Chelsea · Away27 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.09 | +13.24 |
| M19 | Arsenal · Away30 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.55 | +12.68 |
| M20 | Nottingham Forest · Home3 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.23 | +13.92 |
| M21 | Crystal Palace · Away7 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.48 | +13.44 |
| M22 | Everton · Home18 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.02 | +11.41 |
| M23 | Newcastle · Away25 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +13.27 |
| M24 | Brentford · Home1 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.52 | +11.75 |
| M25 | Bournemouth · Away7 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | +11.28 |
| M26 | Brighton · Home11 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.36 | +12.64 |
| M27 | Leeds · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.81 | +11.83 |
| M28 | Wolverhampton · Away27 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.88 | +9.95 |
| M29 | Chelsea · Home4 Mar 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.34 | +8.61 |
| M30 | Manchester United · Away15 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.86 | +7.75 |
| M31 | West Ham · Home22 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +8.87 |
| M32 | Nottingham Forest · Away12 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.23 | +8.64 |
| M33 | Sunderland · Home19 Apr 2026 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.11 | +9.75 |
| M34 | Fulham · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.31 | +8.44 |
| M35 | Tottenham · Home3 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.53 | +6.91 |
| M36 | Burnley · Away10 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.13 | +5.79 |
| M37 | Liverpool · Home15 May 2026 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.68 | +7.46 |
| M38 | Manchester City · Away24 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.40 | +9.86 |
| Total | 65 | +9.86 | |||