Points
57Points expected by the market
50.66Gap
+6.34Yield
−2.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.15 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 20 | +0.45 | −14.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 23 | +1.93 | −16.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 13 | +5.10 | +44.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.15 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 18 | +1.94 | +4.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 8 | +0.12 | −59.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 4 | +1.56 | +40.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 2 | −1.49 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 15 | +1.81 | +8.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 9 | +3.54 | +46.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Liverpool · Away15 Aug 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| M2 | Wolverhampton · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.17 | +0.68 |
| M3 | Tottenham · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.01 | +2.69 |
| M4 | Brighton · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.55 | +4.24 |
| M5 | Newcastle · Home21 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.48 | +3.76 |
| M6 | Leeds · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.45 | +3.31 |
| M7 | Fulham · Home3 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.26 | +4.57 |
| M8 | Crystal Palace · Away18 Oct 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.11 | +4.46 |
| M9 | Nottingham Forest · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.27 | +5.74 |
| M10 | Manchester City · Away2 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.60 | +5.14 |
| M11 | Aston Villa · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.20 | +3.94 |
| M12 | West Ham · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.95 | +2.99 |
| M13 | Sunderland · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.52 | +1.47 |
| M14 | Everton · Home2 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.59 | −0.12 |
| M15 | Chelsea · Home6 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.23 |
| M16 | Manchester United · Away15 Dec 2025 | D 4-4 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.15 |
| M17 | Burnley · Home20 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.15 | −1.30 |
| M18 | Brentford · Away27 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.21 | −2.51 |
| M19 | Chelsea · Away30 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.25 | −2.26 |
| M20 | Arsenal · Home3 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.69 | −2.95 |
| M21 | Tottenham · Home7 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.42 | −1.53 |
| M22 | Brighton · Away19 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | −1.58 |
| M23 | Liverpool · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.09 | +0.51 |
| M24 | Wolverhampton · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +2.03 |
| M25 | Aston Villa · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.26 | +1.77 |
| M26 | Everton · Away10 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +3.54 |
| M27 | West Ham · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.41 | +3.13 |
| M28 | Sunderland · Home28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.83 | +2.30 |
| M29 | Brentford · Home3 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.40 | +1.90 |
| M30 | Burnley · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.80 | +1.11 |
| M31 | Manchester United · Home20 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.93 |
| M32 | Arsenal · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.35 | +3.28 |
| M33 | Newcastle · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | +5.09 |
| M34 | Leeds · Home22 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.80 | +4.29 |
| M35 | Crystal Palace · Home3 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +5.27 |
| M36 | Fulham · Away9 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | +6.86 |
| M37 | Manchester City · Home19 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.17 | +7.03 |
| M38 | Nottingham Forest · Away24 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | +6.34 |
| Total | 57 | +6.34 | |||