Points
53Points expected by the market
49.80Gap
+3.20Yield
−1.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.86 | +48.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 17 | −0.60 | −22.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 24 | +5.67 | +45.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 9 | −2.73 | −40.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.86 | +48.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 11 | −3.15 | −51.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 13 | +4.93 | +94.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 5 | +1.50 | −2.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 6 | +2.55 | +96.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | +0.74 | +8.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 4 | −4.23 | −58.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Nottingham Forest · Away17 Aug 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| M2 | Aston Villa · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | +0.89 |
| M3 | Sunderland · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.50 | −0.61 |
| M4 | Chelsea · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.54 |
| M5 | Fulham · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.08 | −1.62 |
| M6 | Manchester United · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.88 | +0.26 |
| M7 | Manchester City · Home5 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.79 | −0.53 |
| M8 | West Ham · Away20 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.61 | +1.08 |
| M9 | Liverpool · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.04 | +3.11 |
| M10 | Crystal Palace · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.07 | +2.05 |
| M11 | Newcastle · Home9 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.71 | +3.76 |
| M12 | Brighton · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | +2.67 |
| M13 | Burnley · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.86 | +3.53 |
| M14 | Arsenal · Away3 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.59 | +2.94 |
| M15 | Tottenham · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.26 | +1.68 |
| M16 | Leeds · Home14 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.62 | +1.06 |
| M17 | Wolverhampton · Away20 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +2.45 |
| M18 | Bournemouth · Home27 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.48 | +3.93 |
| M19 | Tottenham · Home1 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.46 | +3.47 |
| M20 | Everton · Away4 Jan 2026 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.76 | +5.22 |
| M21 | Sunderland · Home7 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +6.51 |
| M22 | Chelsea · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.97 | +5.54 |
| M23 | Nottingham Forest · Home25 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.81 | +3.73 |
| M24 | Aston Villa · Away1 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.81 | +5.53 |
| M25 | Newcastle · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.99 | +7.52 |
| M26 | Arsenal · Home12 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.19 | +7.72 |
| M27 | Brighton · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.54 | +6.18 |
| M28 | Burnley · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.15 | +7.33 |
| M29 | Bournemouth · Away3 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.34 | +6.99 |
| M30 | Wolverhampton · Home16 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.07 | +5.92 |
| M31 | Leeds · Away21 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | +5.68 |
| M32 | Everton · Home11 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.60 | +5.09 |
| M33 | Fulham · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.69 | +4.39 |
| M34 | Manchester United · Away27 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | +3.34 |
| M35 | West Ham · Home2 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.23 | +4.57 |
| M36 | Manchester City · Away9 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.55 | +4.02 |
| M37 | Crystal Palace · Home17 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.88 | +3.14 |
| M38 | Liverpool · Away24 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.06 | +3.20 |
| Total | 53 | +3.20 | |||