Points
53Points expected by the market
55.70Gap
−2.70Yield
−12.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.43 | +36.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 23 | −4.56 | −39.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 20 | +0.37 | +15.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 4 | +0.06 | −28.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.43 | +36.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 15 | −3.98 | −44.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 12 | +5.40 | +133.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.81 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −0.59 | −28.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 8 | −5.03 | −43.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 4 | +0.87 | −10.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fulham · Home16 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| M2 | Everton · Away24 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.45 | −2.27 |
| M3 | Manchester City · Home31 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.92 | −0.35 |
| M4 | Bournemouth · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.28 | −1.63 |
| M5 | Tottenham · Home20 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.57 | −2.20 |
| M6 | Chelsea · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.95 | −0.25 |
| M7 | Wolverhampton · Away5 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.89 |
| M8 | Newcastle · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | +0.84 |
| M9 | Manchester United · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.08 | −0.24 |
| M10 | Leeds · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.26 | +1.02 |
| M11 | Crystal Palace · Away9 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.78 |
| M12 | Brentford · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.37 | +2.15 |
| M13 | Nottingham Forest · Away30 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.58 | +3.73 |
| M14 | Aston Villa · Home3 Dec 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.54 | +2.18 |
| M15 | West Ham · Home7 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.00 | +1.18 |
| M16 | Liverpool · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.89 | +0.29 |
| M17 | Sunderland · Home20 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.81 | −0.52 |
| M18 | Arsenal · Away27 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.50 | −1.02 |
| M19 | West Ham · Away30 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.62 | −1.63 |
| M20 | Burnley · Home3 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.83 | −0.81 |
| M21 | Manchester City · Away7 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.50 |
| M22 | Bournemouth · Home19 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.70 | −1.20 |
| M23 | Fulham · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −2.52 |
| M24 | Everton · Home31 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.76 | −3.28 |
| M25 | Crystal Palace · Home8 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | −4.86 |
| M26 | Aston Villa · Away11 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | −5.97 |
| M27 | Brentford · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.82 | −4.16 |
| M28 | Nottingham Forest · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.37 | −2.79 |
| M29 | Arsenal · Home4 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −3.60 |
| M30 | Sunderland · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −2.28 |
| M31 | Liverpool · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | −0.46 |
| M32 | Burnley · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.99 | +0.53 |
| M33 | Tottenham · Away18 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.53 | 0.00 |
| M34 | Chelsea · Home21 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.49 | +1.48 |
| M35 | Newcastle · Away2 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.41 | +0.07 |
| M36 | Wolverhampton · Home9 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.60 | +0.68 |
| M37 | Leeds · Away17 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.64 | −0.97 |
| M38 | Manchester United · Home24 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.73 | −2.70 |
| Total | 53 | −2.70 | |||