Points
22Points expected by the market
28.80Gap
−6.80Yield
−55.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 8 | +1.63 | +17.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 33 | 14 | −8.43 | −65.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 8 | +1.63 | +17.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 5 | −5.72 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 19 | 9 | −2.71 | −40.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Tottenham · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| M2 | Sunderland · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.50 | +0.80 |
| M3 | Manchester United · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.56 | +0.24 |
| M4 | Liverpool · Home14 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.50 | −0.26 |
| M5 | Nottingham Forest · Home20 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.38 |
| M6 | Manchester City · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.34 | −0.72 |
| M7 | Aston Villa · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.70 | −1.42 |
| M8 | Leeds · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.89 | +0.47 |
| M9 | Wolverhampton · Away26 Oct 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.06 | +2.53 |
| M10 | Arsenal · Home1 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.37 | +2.15 |
| M11 | West Ham · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.94 | +1.21 |
| M12 | Chelsea · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | +0.47 |
| M13 | Brentford · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.65 | −0.18 |
| M14 | Crystal Palace · Home3 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.83 | −1.01 |
| M15 | Newcastle · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.47 | −1.48 |
| M16 | Fulham · Home13 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.01 | −2.49 |
| M17 | Bournemouth · Away20 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.35 | −2.14 |
| M18 | Everton · Home27 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.08 | −2.22 |
| M19 | Newcastle · Home30 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.73 | −2.95 |
| M20 | Brighton · Away3 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.62 | −3.57 |
| M21 | Manchester United · Home7 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.16 | −3.41 |
| M22 | Liverpool · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.61 | −2.80 |
| M23 | Tottenham · Home24 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.02 | −2.82 |
| M24 | Sunderland · Away2 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.93 | −3.75 |
| M25 | West Ham · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.18 | −4.93 |
| M26 | Crystal Palace · Away11 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.37 | −2.55 |
| M27 | Chelsea · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.61 | −1.94 |
| M28 | Brentford · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.90 | −2.85 |
| M29 | Everton · Away3 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −3.59 |
| M30 | Bournemouth · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.04 | −3.55 |
| M31 | Fulham · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.70 | −4.25 |
| M32 | Brighton · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.76 | −5.01 |
| M33 | Nottingham Forest · Away19 Apr 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.63 | −5.64 |
| M34 | Manchester City · Home22 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.30 | −5.94 |
| M35 | Leeds · Away1 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.53 | −6.47 |
| M36 | Aston Villa · Home10 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.34 | −6.13 |
| M37 | Arsenal · Away18 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.22 | −6.34 |
| M38 | Wolverhampton · Home24 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | −6.80 |
| Total | 22 | −6.80 | |||