Points
52Points expected by the market
63.41Gap
−11.41Yield
−28.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 4 | −5.13 | −66.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 21 | 32 | −6.28 | −23.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 15 | +0.36 | −9.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.36 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 4 | −5.13 | −66.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 18 | −4.20 | −24.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 4 | +0.45 | −4.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 14 | −2.08 | −22.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | −0.09 | −11.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.36 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Crystal Palace · Home17 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| M2 | West Ham · Away22 Aug 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.10 | +0.28 |
| M3 | Fulham · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +1.33 |
| M4 | Brentford · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.51 |
| M5 | Manchester United · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −0.88 |
| M6 | Brighton · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.69 | −2.58 |
| M7 | Liverpool · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.75 | −0.83 |
| M8 | Nottingham Forest · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.48 | +0.65 |
| M9 | Sunderland · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.19 | −1.54 |
| M10 | Tottenham · Away1 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −0.04 |
| M11 | Wolverhampton · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.72 | +0.68 |
| M12 | Burnley · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.98 | +1.65 |
| M13 | Arsenal · Home30 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | +1.41 |
| M14 | Leeds · Away3 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.73 | −0.32 |
| M15 | Bournemouth · Away6 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.96 |
| M16 | Everton · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +0.13 |
| M17 | Newcastle · Away20 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.32 |
| M18 | Aston Villa · Home27 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.85 | −2.16 |
| M19 | Bournemouth · Home30 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.03 | −3.20 |
| M20 | Manchester City · Away4 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.32 | −2.87 |
| M21 | Fulham · Away7 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.68 | −4.55 |
| M22 | Brentford · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.22 | −3.33 |
| M23 | Crystal Palace · Away25 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.38 | −1.95 |
| M24 | West Ham · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.99 | −0.96 |
| M25 | Wolverhampton · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.98 | +0.03 |
| M26 | Leeds · Home10 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.10 | −1.07 |
| M27 | Burnley · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.46 | −2.53 |
| M28 | Arsenal · Away1 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −3.21 |
| M29 | Aston Villa · Away4 Mar 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.61 | −1.60 |
| M30 | Newcastle · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.90 | −3.49 |
| M31 | Everton · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.55 | −5.04 |
| M32 | Manchester City · Home12 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.06 | −6.10 |
| M33 | Manchester United · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.61 | −7.70 |
| M34 | Brighton · Away21 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −8.92 |
| M35 | Nottingham Forest · Home4 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −2.21 | −11.12 |
| M36 | Liverpool · Away9 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −11.19 |
| M37 | Tottenham · Home19 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.43 | −9.76 |
| M38 | Sunderland · Away24 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.65 | −11.41 |
| Total | 52 | −11.41 | |||