Points
45Points expected by the market
48.39Gap
−3.39Yield
−23.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.16 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 14 | +1.54 | +5.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 25 | +1.04 | −1.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 6 | −3.82 | −66.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 0 | −2.16 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −0.72 | −23.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 10 | −3.76 | −70.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 3 | +0.11 | +33.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 6 | +2.26 | +77.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 15 | +4.81 | +85.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 3 | −3.92 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Chelsea · Away17 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| M2 | Nottingham Forest · Home24 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.41 |
| M3 | Aston Villa · Away31 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.90 | +1.49 |
| M4 | Sunderland · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.95 | +0.54 |
| M5 | West Ham · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.49 | +2.03 |
| M6 | Liverpool · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.03 | +4.07 |
| M7 | Everton · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | +2.75 |
| M8 | Bournemouth · Home18 Oct 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.61 | +2.14 |
| M9 | Arsenal · Away26 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.55 | +1.59 |
| M10 | Brentford · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.34 | +2.93 |
| M11 | Brighton · Home9 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.48 | +2.45 |
| M12 | Wolverhampton · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.16 | +3.62 |
| M13 | Manchester United · Home30 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.64 | +1.98 |
| M14 | Burnley · Away3 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +3.07 |
| M15 | Fulham · Away7 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.72 | +4.79 |
| M16 | Manchester City · Home14 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.96 | +3.83 |
| M17 | Leeds · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.38 | +2.45 |
| M18 | Tottenham · Home28 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.56 | +0.90 |
| M19 | Fulham · Home1 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.33 |
| M20 | Newcastle · Away4 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.82 | −0.50 |
| M21 | Aston Villa · Home7 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.73 |
| M22 | Sunderland · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −1.93 |
| M23 | Chelsea · Home25 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.11 | −3.04 |
| M24 | Nottingham Forest · Away1 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | −3.10 |
| M25 | Brighton · Away8 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.87 | −1.23 |
| M26 | Burnley · Home11 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −2.16 | −3.39 |
| M27 | Wolverhampton · Home22 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.15 | −2.24 |
| M28 | Manchester United · Away1 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.69 | −2.93 |
| M29 | Tottenham · Away5 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.72 | −1.21 |
| M30 | Leeds · Home15 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.36 | −1.57 |
| M31 | Newcastle · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.74 | +0.17 |
| M32 | West Ham · Home20 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.24 |
| M33 | Liverpool · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −0.99 |
| M34 | Bournemouth · Away3 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.75 | −1.74 |
| M35 | Everton · Home10 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.31 | −2.05 |
| M36 | Manchester City · Away13 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.50 | −2.55 |
| M37 | Brentford · Away17 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.12 | −2.43 |
| M38 | Arsenal · Home24 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | −3.39 |
| Total | 45 | −3.39 | |||