Points
49Points expected by the market
46.86Gap
+2.14Yield
+11.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 9 | −1.86 | −38.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 26 | +0.49 | +5.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 14 | +3.51 | +42.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −1.25 | −26.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 14 | −1.23 | +0.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −1.38 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.61 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 12 | +1.72 | +13.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 13 | +4.89 | +84.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leeds · Away18 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.19 | −1.19 |
| M2 | Brighton · Home24 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.74 | +0.54 |
| M3 | Wolverhampton · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.47 | +2.01 |
| M4 | Aston Villa · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.39 | +1.62 |
| M5 | Liverpool · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.67 | +0.95 |
| M6 | West Ham · Home29 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.97 | −0.02 |
| M7 | Crystal Palace · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.62 | +1.60 |
| M8 | Manchester City · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.60 | +1.00 |
| M9 | Tottenham · Home26 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.58 | −0.58 |
| M10 | Sunderland · Away3 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | −1.09 |
| M11 | Fulham · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | +0.39 |
| M12 | Manchester United · Away24 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.05 | +2.43 |
| M13 | Newcastle · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.35 | +1.08 |
| M14 | Bournemouth · Away2 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.87 | +2.95 |
| M15 | Nottingham Forest · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.34 | +4.30 |
| M16 | Chelsea · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.84 | +3.45 |
| M17 | Arsenal · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.69 | +2.76 |
| M18 | Burnley · Away27 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.61 | +2.15 |
| M19 | Nottingham Forest · Away30 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.06 | +4.21 |
| M20 | Brentford · Home4 Jan 2026 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.46 | +2.75 |
| M21 | Wolverhampton · Home7 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.82 | +1.93 |
| M22 | Aston Villa · Away18 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.26 | +4.20 |
| M23 | Leeds · Home26 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | +3.75 |
| M24 | Brighton · Away31 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.03 | +3.78 |
| M25 | Fulham · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.89 | +5.67 |
| M26 | Bournemouth · Home10 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.50 | +4.17 |
| M27 | Manchester United · Home23 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.06 | +3.11 |
| M28 | Newcastle · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.10 | +5.20 |
| M29 | Burnley · Home3 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.99 | +6.20 |
| M30 | Arsenal · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.53 | +5.66 |
| M31 | Chelsea · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +7.49 |
| M32 | Brentford · Away11 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.12 | +7.37 |
| M33 | Liverpool · Home19 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.17 | +6.20 |
| M34 | West Ham · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.28 | +4.92 |
| M35 | Manchester City · Home4 May 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.37 | +5.30 |
| M36 | Crystal Palace · Away10 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.40 | +4.89 |
| M37 | Sunderland · Home17 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.79 | +3.10 |
| M38 | Tottenham · Away24 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.96 | +2.14 |
| Total | 49 | +2.14 | |||