Points
52Points expected by the market
47.41Gap
+4.59Yield
−7.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 22 | +6.31 | +50.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 24 | +3.04 | +12.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 6 | −4.76 | −72.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 18 | +5.80 | +64.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 13 | +2.00 | +26.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 4 | +0.55 | −9.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 4 | +0.50 | −0.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | +1.04 | −0.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 2 | −5.31 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Brighton · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| M2 | Manchester United · Home24 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 |
| M3 | Chelsea · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.81 | −0.83 |
| M4 | Leeds · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | +0.49 |
| M5 | Brentford · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.37 | +1.86 |
| M6 | Aston Villa · Away28 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.15 | +0.72 |
| M7 | Bournemouth · Away3 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −0.27 |
| M8 | Arsenal · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.65 | −0.92 |
| M9 | Newcastle · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −1.66 |
| M10 | Wolverhampton · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.15 | −0.51 |
| M11 | Everton · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.18 | −1.69 |
| M12 | Sunderland · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | −0.37 |
| M13 | Tottenham · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +1.41 |
| M14 | Manchester City · Home2 Dec 2025 | L 4-5 | 0 | −0.79 | +0.62 |
| M15 | Crystal Palace · Home7 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −0.81 |
| M16 | Burnley · Away13 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.29 | +0.48 |
| M17 | Nottingham Forest · Home22 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.60 | +2.08 |
| M18 | West Ham · Away27 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +3.61 |
| M19 | Crystal Palace · Away1 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.14 | +3.47 |
| M20 | Liverpool · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.04 | +3.51 |
| M21 | Chelsea · Home7 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.95 | +5.45 |
| M22 | Leeds · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.20 | +4.25 |
| M23 | Brighton · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | +5.86 |
| M24 | Manchester United · Away1 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.72 | +5.13 |
| M25 | Everton · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | +3.52 |
| M26 | Manchester City · Away11 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.57 | +2.96 |
| M27 | Sunderland · Away22 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.59 | +4.55 |
| M28 | Tottenham · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.34 | +5.89 |
| M29 | West Ham · Home4 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.56 | +4.33 |
| M30 | Nottingham Forest · Away15 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.19 | +4.14 |
| M31 | Burnley · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.92 | +5.06 |
| M32 | Liverpool · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.88 | +4.18 |
| M33 | Brentford · Away18 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.05 | +4.12 |
| M34 | Aston Villa · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +5.70 |
| M35 | Arsenal · Away2 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.62 | +5.08 |
| M36 | Bournemouth · Home9 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.33 | +3.75 |
| M37 | Wolverhampton · Away17 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.79 | +2.96 |
| M38 | Newcastle · Home24 May 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +4.59 |
| Total | 52 | +4.59 | |||