Points
47Points expected by the market
44.82Gap
+2.18Yield
−22.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.72 | +36.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 9 | +0.03 | +9.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 21 | +2.51 | −3.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 14 | −1.08 | −49.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.72 | +36.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 9 | +1.62 | +36.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 15 | +3.02 | +21.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 5 | +0.50 | −21.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.59 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 6 | −0.51 | −48.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 9 | −1.58 | −60.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Everton · Home18 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | +1.49 |
| M2 | Arsenal · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.50 | +0.99 |
| M3 | Newcastle · Home30 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.94 |
| M4 | Fulham · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.04 | −0.10 |
| M5 | Wolverhampton · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +1.49 |
| M6 | Bournemouth · Home27 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.26 | +1.24 |
| M7 | Tottenham · Home4 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −0.08 |
| M8 | Burnley · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −1.67 |
| M9 | West Ham · Home24 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.15 | −0.53 |
| M10 | Brighton · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.00 | −1.52 |
| M11 | Nottingham Forest · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.12 | −2.65 |
| M12 | Aston Villa · Home23 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −3.82 |
| M13 | Manchester City · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.39 | −4.21 |
| M14 | Chelsea · Home3 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.00 | −2.20 |
| M15 | Liverpool · Home6 Dec 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.11 | −2.09 |
| M16 | Brentford · Away14 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.09 | −2.18 |
| M17 | Crystal Palace · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.69 | −0.50 |
| M18 | Sunderland · Away28 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.88 |
| M19 | Liverpool · Away1 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.52 |
| M20 | Manchester United · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.85 |
| M21 | Newcastle · Away7 Jan 2026 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.75 | −1.60 |
| M22 | Fulham · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | −0.12 |
| M23 | Everton · Away26 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.36 |
| M24 | Arsenal · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.72 | −1.08 |
| M25 | Nottingham Forest · Home6 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.39 | +0.31 |
| M26 | Chelsea · Away10 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.62 |
| M27 | Aston Villa · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.69 |
| M28 | Manchester City · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.84 | −0.15 |
| M29 | Sunderland · Home3 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.83 | −1.98 |
| M30 | Crystal Palace · Away15 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.35 | −2.33 |
| M31 | Brentford · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.48 | −2.81 |
| M32 | Manchester United · Away13 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.21 | −0.60 |
| M33 | Wolverhampton · Home18 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +0.31 |
| M34 | Bournemouth · Away22 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.36 |
| M35 | Burnley · Home1 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.72 | +1.08 |
| M36 | Tottenham · Away11 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.07 | +1.14 |
| M37 | Brighton · Home17 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.91 | +3.06 |
| M38 | West Ham · Away24 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.88 | +2.18 |
| Total | 47 | +2.18 | |||