Points
60Points expected by the market
70.10Gap
−10.10Yield
−23.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 10 | 16 | −6.91 | −47.4% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 34 | −2.73 | −14.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 9 | +0.29 | +15.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.74 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 8 | 13 | −5.40 | −50.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 20 | +1.20 | −1.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.51 | +137.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.51 | −34.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 14 | −3.93 | −27.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 6 | −1.23 | −9.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.74 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bournemouth · Home15 Aug 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| M2 | Newcastle · Away25 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.50 | +2.14 |
| M3 | Arsenal · Home31 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.51 | +3.65 |
| M4 | Burnley · Away14 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.67 | +4.32 |
| M5 | Everton · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.89 | +5.21 |
| M6 | Crystal Palace · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.78 | +3.44 |
| M7 | Chelsea · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.49 | +1.95 |
| M8 | Manchester United · Home19 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.93 | +0.02 |
| M9 | Brentford · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.80 | −1.78 |
| M10 | Aston Villa · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.05 | −0.73 |
| M11 | Manchester City · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.01 | −1.74 |
| M12 | Nottingham Forest · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −2.16 | −3.90 |
| M13 | West Ham · Away30 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.99 | −2.92 |
| M14 | Sunderland · Home3 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.28 | −4.20 |
| M15 | Leeds · Away6 Dec 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.86 | −5.06 |
| M16 | Brighton · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.13 | −3.94 |
| M17 | Tottenham · Away20 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.33 | −2.61 |
| M18 | Wolverhampton · Home27 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.55 | −2.06 |
| M19 | Leeds · Home1 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.15 | −3.20 |
| M20 | Fulham · Away4 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.78 | −3.98 |
| M21 | Arsenal · Away8 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.27 | −3.71 |
| M22 | Burnley · Home17 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.46 | −5.18 |
| M23 | Bournemouth · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.85 | −7.02 |
| M24 | Newcastle · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.04 | −5.98 |
| M25 | Manchester City · Home8 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.57 | −7.54 |
| M26 | Sunderland · Away11 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.13 | −6.41 |
| M27 | Nottingham Forest · Away22 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −5.18 |
| M28 | West Ham · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 5-2 | 3 | +0.80 | −4.37 |
| M29 | Wolverhampton · Away3 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.18 | −6.56 |
| M30 | Tottenham · Home15 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.34 | −7.89 |
| M31 | Brighton · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | −9.45 |
| M32 | Fulham · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.11 | −8.33 |
| M33 | Everton · Away19 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.45 | −6.88 |
| M34 | Crystal Palace · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.97 | −5.91 |
| M35 | Manchester United · Away3 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.29 | −7.20 |
| M36 | Chelsea · Home9 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | −7.87 |
| M37 | Aston Villa · Away15 May 2026 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.40 | −9.27 |
| M38 | Brentford · Home24 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.82 | −10.10 |
| Total | 60 | −10.10 | |||