Points
78Points expected by the market
77.12Gap
+0.88Yield
−5.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 16 | 37 | −0.09 | −11.4% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 19 | 37 | +0.76 | −1.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.28 | +50.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.07 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 13 | 32 | +1.87 | +0.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 13 | +1.29 | +15.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 5 | −1.96 | −61.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 24 | −0.52 | −8.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.28 | +50.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.07 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Wolverhampton · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.90 | +0.90 |
| M2 | Tottenham · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −2.06 | −1.16 |
| M3 | Brighton · Away31 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.66 | −2.82 |
| M4 | Manchester United · Home14 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.05 | −1.78 |
| M5 | Arsenal · Away21 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −1.85 |
| M6 | Burnley · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.47 | −1.38 |
| M7 | Brentford · Away5 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.02 | −0.36 |
| M8 | Everton · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.81 | +0.45 |
| M9 | Aston Villa · Away26 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.81 | −1.36 |
| M10 | Bournemouth · Home2 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.79 | −0.57 |
| M11 | Liverpool · Home9 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.25 | +0.68 |
| M12 | Newcastle · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | −1.03 |
| M13 | Leeds · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.53 | −0.50 |
| M14 | Fulham · Away2 Dec 2025 | W 5-4 | 3 | +1.02 | +0.52 |
| M15 | Sunderland · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.57 | +1.10 |
| M16 | Crystal Palace · Away14 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.21 | +2.31 |
| M17 | West Ham · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.49 | +2.80 |
| M18 | Nottingham Forest · Away27 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.01 | +3.81 |
| M19 | Sunderland · Away1 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.20 | +2.61 |
| M20 | Chelsea · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.13 | +1.48 |
| M21 | Brighton · Home7 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.10 | +0.38 |
| M22 | Manchester United · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.53 | −1.16 |
| M23 | Wolverhampton · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.64 | −0.52 |
| M24 | Tottenham · Away1 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.96 | −1.48 |
| M25 | Liverpool · Away8 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | +0.33 |
| M26 | Fulham · Home11 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +1.08 |
| M27 | Newcastle · Home21 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.95 | +2.03 |
| M28 | Leeds · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.08 | +3.11 |
| M29 | Nottingham Forest · Home4 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.24 | +1.87 |
| M30 | West Ham · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.96 | +0.91 |
| M31 | Chelsea · Away12 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +2.21 |
| M32 | Arsenal · Home19 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.20 | +3.41 |
| M33 | Burnley · Away22 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.41 | +3.82 |
| M34 | Everton · Away4 May 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.17 | +2.65 |
| M35 | Brentford · Home9 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.72 | +3.38 |
| M36 | Crystal Palace · Home13 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.66 | +4.04 |
| M37 | Bournemouth · Away19 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.95 | +3.09 |
| M38 | Aston Villa · Home24 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.21 | +0.88 |
| Total | 78 | +0.88 | |||