Points
71Points expected by the market
60.67Gap
+10.33Yield
+29.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 5 | −1.73 | −54.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 37 | +0.45 | −14.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 23 | +10.08 | +105.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 6 | +1.54 | +104.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 5 | −1.73 | −54.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 25 | +3.93 | +22.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 12 | +6.58 | +161.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.01 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 12 | −3.49 | −59.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 11 | +3.49 | +68.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 6 | +2.55 | +156.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Arsenal · Home17 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | −1.01 |
| M2 | Fulham · Away24 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | −1.65 |
| M3 | Burnley · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.75 | −0.90 |
| M4 | Manchester City · Away14 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.82 | −1.71 |
| M5 | Chelsea · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.66 | −0.05 |
| M6 | Brentford · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.63 | −1.68 |
| M7 | Sunderland · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.01 | −0.68 |
| M8 | Liverpool · Away19 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.15 | +1.47 |
| M9 | Brighton · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.33 | +2.80 |
| M10 | Nottingham Forest · Away1 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.61 | +2.20 |
| M11 | Tottenham · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.47 | +1.72 |
| M12 | Everton · Home24 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.79 | −0.06 |
| M13 | Crystal Palace · Away30 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.90 | +1.84 |
| M14 | West Ham · Home4 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.23 | +0.61 |
| M15 | Wolverhampton · Away8 Dec 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +1.64 |
| M16 | Bournemouth · Home15 Dec 2025 | D 4-4 | 1 | −0.85 | +0.79 |
| M17 | Aston Villa · Away21 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.07 | −0.27 |
| M18 | Newcastle · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | +1.31 |
| M19 | Wolverhampton · Home30 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.25 | +0.06 |
| M20 | Leeds · Away4 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.32 |
| M21 | Burnley · Away7 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.90 | −1.23 |
| M22 | Manchester City · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +0.57 |
| M23 | Arsenal · Away25 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.28 | +2.85 |
| M24 | Fulham · Home1 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.93 | +3.78 |
| M25 | Tottenham · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.00 | +4.78 |
| M26 | West Ham · Away10 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.91 | +3.87 |
| M27 | Everton · Away23 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | +5.19 |
| M28 | Crystal Palace · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.91 | +6.10 |
| M29 | Newcastle · Away4 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | +4.72 |
| M30 | Aston Villa · Home15 Mar 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.09 | +5.81 |
| M31 | Bournemouth · Away20 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.57 | +5.24 |
| M32 | Leeds · Home13 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.98 | +3.26 |
| M33 | Chelsea · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +5.13 |
| M34 | Brentford · Home27 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.31 | +6.43 |
| M35 | Liverpool · Home3 May 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.54 | +7.97 |
| M36 | Sunderland · Away9 May 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.58 | +7.39 |
| M37 | Nottingham Forest · Home17 May 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.98 | +8.37 |
| M38 | Brighton · Away24 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.96 | +10.33 |
| Total | 71 | +10.33 | |||