Points
49Points expected by the market
58.45Gap
−9.45Yield
−19.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.36 | +33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 22 | −9.02 | −41.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 15 | −3.75 | −27.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 6 | +1.96 | +59.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.36 | +33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 16 | −4.27 | −23.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 7 | +0.66 | +4.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.97 | +267.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 6 | −4.75 | −74.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 8 | −4.41 | −45.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 3 | −0.01 | +7.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Aston Villa · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| M2 | Liverpool · Home25 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.24 | −1.48 |
| M3 | Leeds · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | −2.15 |
| M4 | Wolverhampton · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.72 | −1.43 |
| M5 | Bournemouth · Away21 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.23 | −1.66 |
| M6 | Arsenal · Home28 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −2.79 |
| M7 | Nottingham Forest · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.90 | −1.89 |
| M8 | Brighton · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.45 | −3.34 |
| M9 | Fulham · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.98 | −2.36 |
| M10 | West Ham · Away2 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.97 | −4.33 |
| M11 | Brentford · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.43 | −5.76 |
| M12 | Manchester City · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.97 | −3.79 |
| M13 | Everton · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.64 | −2.15 |
| M14 | Tottenham · Home2 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.80 | −2.95 |
| M15 | Burnley · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.64 | −2.31 |
| M16 | Sunderland · Away14 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.60 | −3.91 |
| M17 | Chelsea · Home20 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.29 | −4.20 |
| M18 | Manchester United · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.33 | −5.52 |
| M19 | Burnley · Away30 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.95 | −4.57 |
| M20 | Crystal Palace · Home4 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.06 | −3.51 |
| M21 | Leeds · Home7 Jan 2026 | W 4-3 | 3 | +0.99 | −2.51 |
| M22 | Wolverhampton · Away18 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.89 | −3.41 |
| M23 | Aston Villa · Home25 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −5.00 |
| M24 | Liverpool · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.82 | −5.81 |
| M25 | Brentford · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.73 | −7.55 |
| M26 | Tottenham · Away10 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.47 | −6.08 |
| M27 | Manchester City · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −6.82 |
| M28 | Everton · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.84 | −8.66 |
| M29 | Manchester United · Home4 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.64 | −7.02 |
| M30 | Chelsea · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.12 | −4.90 |
| M31 | Sunderland · Home22 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.07 | −6.97 |
| M32 | Crystal Palace · Away12 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.46 | −8.43 |
| M33 | Bournemouth · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.56 | −9.98 |
| M34 | Arsenal · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.57 | −10.55 |
| M35 | Brighton · Home2 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.67 | −8.87 |
| M36 | Nottingham Forest · Away10 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | −9.46 |
| M37 | West Ham · Home17 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.38 | −8.08 |
| M38 | Fulham · Away24 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −9.45 |
| Total | 49 | −9.45 | |||