Points
44Points expected by the market
46.99Gap
−2.99Yield
−3.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.84 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 6 | −6.52 | −72.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 23 | +2.01 | −4.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 12 | +0.67 | +29.1% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.84 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 5 | −5.92 | −68.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 10 | −0.72 | −39.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 2 | −1.55 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.59 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 13 | +2.73 | +31.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 10 | +2.23 | +80.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Brentford · Home17 Aug 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.24 | +1.24 |
| M2 | Crystal Palace · Away24 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.22 | +1.01 |
| M3 | West Ham · Home31 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.96 | −0.95 |
| M4 | Arsenal · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.58 | −1.53 |
| M5 | Burnley · Away20 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | −2.12 |
| M6 | Sunderland · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.88 | −4.00 |
| M7 | Newcastle · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −4.69 |
| M8 | Chelsea · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.20 | −5.89 |
| M9 | Bournemouth · Away26 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −6.90 |
| M10 | Manchester United · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.13 | −7.03 |
| M11 | Leeds · Home9 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.42 | −5.60 |
| M12 | Liverpool · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.36 | −3.24 |
| M13 | Brighton · Home30 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.29 | −4.53 |
| M14 | Wolverhampton · Away3 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.51 | −3.02 |
| M15 | Everton · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.05 | −4.08 |
| M16 | Tottenham · Home14 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.63 | −2.45 |
| M17 | Fulham · Away22 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | −3.77 |
| M18 | Manchester City · Home27 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.78 | −4.54 |
| M19 | Everton · Home30 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.78 | −6.32 |
| M20 | Aston Villa · Away3 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −7.28 |
| M21 | West Ham · Away6 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | −5.75 |
| M22 | Arsenal · Home17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.26 | −5.49 |
| M23 | Brentford · Away25 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.08 | −3.41 |
| M24 | Crystal Palace · Home1 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.65 | −4.06 |
| M25 | Leeds · Away6 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.11 | −5.17 |
| M26 | Wolverhampton · Home11 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.89 | −6.06 |
| M27 | Liverpool · Home22 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −7.05 |
| M28 | Brighton · Away1 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −8.14 |
| M29 | Manchester City · Away4 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.43 | −7.71 |
| M30 | Fulham · Home15 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.52 | −8.23 |
| M31 | Tottenham · Away22 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.77 | −6.46 |
| M32 | Aston Villa · Home12 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.49 | −6.95 |
| M33 | Burnley · Home19 Apr 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.84 | −6.11 |
| M34 | Sunderland · Away24 Apr 2026 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.67 | −4.44 |
| M35 | Chelsea · Away4 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.40 | −2.03 |
| M36 | Newcastle · Home10 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.14 | −2.17 |
| M37 | Manchester United · Away17 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −2.94 |
| M38 | Bournemouth · Home24 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | −2.99 |
| Total | 44 | −2.99 | |||