Points
54Points expected by the market
38.95Gap
+15.05Yield
+37.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 4 | +0.53 | −4.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 27 | +8.36 | +60.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 21 | 23 | +6.17 | +25.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.22 | +91.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 27 | +10.70 | +85.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 3 | −1.17 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.69 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 0 | −2.34 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 20 | +7.34 | +65.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | West Ham · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +1.86 |
| M2 | Burnley · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.19 | +0.67 |
| M3 | Brentford · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.79 | +2.46 |
| M4 | Crystal Palace · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.21 | +2.68 |
| M5 | Aston Villa · Home21 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | +2.64 |
| M6 | Nottingham Forest · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.14 | +4.79 |
| M7 | Manchester United · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.78 | +4.00 |
| M8 | Wolverhampton · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.55 | +5.55 |
| M9 | Chelsea · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.40 | +7.94 |
| M10 | Everton · Home3 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | +7.76 |
| M11 | Arsenal · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.39 | +8.15 |
| M12 | Fulham · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.03 | +7.12 |
| M13 | Bournemouth · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.81 | +8.93 |
| M14 | Liverpool · Away3 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.46 | +9.39 |
| M15 | Manchester City · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.42 | +8.97 |
| M16 | Newcastle · Home14 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.88 | +10.85 |
| M17 | Brighton · Away20 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.07 | +10.93 |
| M18 | Leeds · Home28 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.31 | +10.62 |
| M19 | Manchester City · Home1 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.41 | +11.03 |
| M20 | Tottenham · Away4 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | 0.00 | +11.03 |
| M21 | Brentford · Away7 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.99 | +10.03 |
| M22 | Crystal Palace · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.51 | +11.54 |
| M23 | West Ham · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.15 | +10.39 |
| M24 | Burnley · Home2 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.22 | +11.61 |
| M25 | Arsenal · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.40 | +11.21 |
| M26 | Liverpool · Home11 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.88 | +10.32 |
| M27 | Fulham · Home22 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.29 | +9.03 |
| M28 | Bournemouth · Away28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.08 | +9.11 |
| M29 | Leeds · Away3 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.10 | +11.22 |
| M30 | Brighton · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | +10.17 |
| M31 | Newcastle · Away22 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.29 | +12.46 |
| M32 | Tottenham · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.69 | +14.15 |
| M33 | Aston Villa · Away19 Apr 2026 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.85 | +13.30 |
| M34 | Nottingham Forest · Home24 Apr 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.37 | +11.93 |
| M35 | Wolverhampton · Away2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | +11.24 |
| M36 | Manchester United · Home9 May 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.15 | +11.09 |
| M37 | Everton · Away17 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.06 | +13.14 |
| M38 | Chelsea · Home24 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.91 | +15.05 |
| Total | 54 | +15.05 | |||