Points
41Points expected by the market
50.10Gap
−9.10Yield
−28.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 16 | −2.24 | −27.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 20 | 19 | −6.79 | −27.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 6 | −0.07 | −31.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 9 | −4.02 | −51.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 5 | −7.33 | −73.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −1.48 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 7 | +1.78 | +27.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 14 | +0.54 | +9.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 5 | +1.41 | +9.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Burnley · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.93 | +0.93 |
| M2 | Manchester City · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.27 | +3.20 |
| M3 | Bournemouth · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.76 | +1.45 |
| M4 | West Ham · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +2.86 |
| M5 | Brighton · Away20 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.17 | +2.69 |
| M6 | Wolverhampton · Home27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.08 | +1.61 |
| M7 | Leeds · Away4 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +3.21 |
| M8 | Aston Villa · Home19 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | +1.66 |
| M9 | Everton · Away26 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +3.52 |
| M10 | Chelsea · Home1 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.22 | +2.30 |
| M11 | Manchester United · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.26 | +2.05 |
| M12 | Arsenal · Away23 Nov 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.62 | +1.43 |
| M13 | Fulham · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.50 | −0.07 |
| M14 | Newcastle · Away2 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.02 |
| M15 | Brentford · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +1.52 |
| M16 | Nottingham Forest · Away14 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.34 | +0.18 |
| M17 | Liverpool · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.07 | −0.88 |
| M18 | Crystal Palace · Away28 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.84 | +0.95 |
| M19 | Brentford · Away1 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.70 |
| M20 | Sunderland · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.02 |
| M21 | Bournemouth · Away7 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.15 | −1.18 |
| M22 | West Ham · Home17 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.80 | −2.98 |
| M23 | Burnley · Away24 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.70 | −3.67 |
| M24 | Manchester City · Home1 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.19 | −3.48 |
| M25 | Manchester United · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −4.27 |
| M26 | Newcastle · Home10 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −5.48 |
| M27 | Arsenal · Home22 Feb 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.61 | −6.09 |
| M28 | Fulham · Away1 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −7.17 |
| M29 | Crystal Palace · Home5 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.44 | −8.61 |
| M30 | Liverpool · Away15 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.50 | −8.11 |
| M31 | Nottingham Forest · Home22 Mar 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.48 | −9.60 |
| M32 | Sunderland · Away12 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.40 | −11.00 |
| M33 | Brighton · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.22 | −11.22 |
| M34 | Wolverhampton · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | −10.16 |
| M35 | Aston Villa · Away3 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.79 | −8.37 |
| M36 | Leeds · Home11 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.81 | −9.18 |
| M37 | Chelsea · Away19 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.15 | −10.33 |
| M38 | Everton · Home24 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −9.10 |
| Total | 41 | −9.10 | |||