Points
39Points expected by the market
40.74Gap
−1.74Yield
−22.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 12 | +4.90 | +88.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 12 | −7.30 | −48.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 19 | 15 | +0.66 | −25.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 9 | +3.46 | +77.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 8 | −4.76 | −53.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 5 | +0.19 | −16.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.44 | +119.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 4 | −2.54 | −37.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 10 | +0.47 | −29.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sunderland · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.56 | −1.56 |
| M2 | Chelsea · Home22 Aug 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.85 | −2.41 |
| M3 | Nottingham Forest · Away31 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.19 | −0.22 |
| M4 | Tottenham · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −1.36 |
| M5 | Crystal Palace · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −2.58 |
| M6 | Everton · Away29 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.22 | −2.36 |
| M7 | Arsenal · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.33 | −2.68 |
| M8 | Brentford · Home20 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −4.00 |
| M9 | Leeds · Away24 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.89 | −4.89 |
| M10 | Newcastle · Home2 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.20 | −2.69 |
| M11 | Burnley · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.20 | −1.49 |
| M12 | Bournemouth · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.19 | −1.30 |
| M13 | Liverpool · Home30 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.77 | −2.08 |
| M14 | Manchester United · Away4 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.42 | −1.66 |
| M15 | Brighton · Away7 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.23 | −1.44 |
| M16 | Aston Villa · Home14 Dec 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −2.57 |
| M17 | Manchester City · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.37 | −2.94 |
| M18 | Fulham · Home27 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | −4.18 |
| M19 | Brighton · Home30 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.12 | −4.30 |
| M20 | Wolverhampton · Away3 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.35 | −5.65 |
| M21 | Nottingham Forest · Home6 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.25 | −6.90 |
| M22 | Tottenham · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.06 | −4.85 |
| M23 | Sunderland · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.43 | −3.41 |
| M24 | Chelsea · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.77 | −4.19 |
| M25 | Burnley · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.44 | −2.75 |
| M26 | Manchester United · Home10 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.14 | −2.61 |
| M27 | Bournemouth · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.33 | −2.94 |
| M28 | Liverpool · Away28 Feb 2026 | L 2-5 | 0 | −0.61 | −3.55 |
| M29 | Fulham · Away4 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | −1.73 |
| M30 | Manchester City · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.19 | −1.54 |
| M31 | Aston Villa · Away22 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −2.41 |
| M32 | Wolverhampton · Home10 Apr 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.15 | −1.26 |
| M33 | Crystal Palace · Away20 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.31 | −1.57 |
| M34 | Everton · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.56 | −0.01 |
| M35 | Brentford · Away2 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −1.00 |
| M36 | Arsenal · Home10 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.71 | −1.72 |
| M37 | Newcastle · Away17 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −2.85 |
| M38 | Leeds · Home24 May 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.11 | −1.74 |
| Total | 39 | −1.74 | |||